Columbus Blue Jackets at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Sean MonahanGoals1
- Ivan ProvorovAssists1
- Sean MonahanPoints1
Sharks- Alexander WennbergGoals1
- Alexander WennbergAssists2
- Alexander WennbergPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:31Macklin Celebrini Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Collin Graf (11), Mario Ferraro (8)2–5
- P317:46Mario Ferraro Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Wennberg (21)2–4
- P316:05Sean Monahan Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Provorov (11)2–3
- P315:16Zack Ostapchuk Goal (2) Backhand, assists: none1–3
- P219:15Zach Werenski Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitri Voronkov (13), Kirill Marchenko (19)1–2
- P24:14Alexander Wennberg Goal (8) Backhand, assists: William Eklund (17), Dmitry Orlov (20)0–2
- P119:11Pavol Regenda Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Wennberg (20), Tyler Toffoli (17)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:11Pavol Regenda Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Wennberg (20), Tyler Toffoli (17)CBJ 0 – 1 SJ · SJ 45% → 62% +17SJ 45% → 62%+17 pts
- P24:14Alexander Wennberg Goal (8) Backhand, assists: William Eklund (17), Dmitry Orlov (20)CBJ 0 – 2 SJ · SJ 64% → 79% +16SJ 64% → 79%+16 pts
- P219:15Zach Werenski Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitri Voronkov (13), Kirill Marchenko (19)CBJ 1 – 2 SJ · CBJ 13% → 30% +17CBJ 13% → 30%+17 pts
- P315:16Zack Ostapchuk Goal (2) Backhand, assists: noneCBJ 1 – 3 SJ · SJ 90% → >99% +10SJ 90% → >99%+10 pts
- P316:05Sean Monahan Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Provorov (11)CBJ 2 – 3 SJ · CBJ <1% → 8% +8CBJ <1% → 8%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jackets 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CBJ 56%
- ML CBJ -142 / SJ +120
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- CBJ: Elo 54.7%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -129
- SJ +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 3.4 – 3.1 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1422 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +3 | CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · SJ: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +33 Elo | CBJ 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 52.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CBJ 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.117th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.631st of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.529th of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.3% | Shot share | 44.5%32nd of 32 |
| 13th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 89.2%21st of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 32 |
| 23rd of 329–12 | Road vs home | 11–1119th of 32 |
| 4th of 321506 | Opponent Elo | 15063rd of 32 |
| 21st of 321486 | Elo rating | 142232nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 21–20 | 27–14 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–11 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 19–9 | 27–13 |
| Overs–unders | 21–20 | 21–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 3–1 SJ in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.