Minnesota Wild at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Marcus FolignoGoals1
- Ryan HartmanAssists1
- Marcus FolignoPoints1
Sharks- Macklin CelebriniGoals1
- Macklin CelebriniAssists1
- Macklin CelebriniPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00William Eklund Goal Wrist Shot0–2
- SO0:00Macklin Celebrini Goal Wrist Shot0–1
- P38:47Mats Zuccarello Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: none3–3
- P36:40Marcus Foligno Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Bogosian (2), Jake Middleton (8)2–3
- P34:16Macklin Celebrini Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Igor Chernyshov (5)1–3
- P216:47Jeff Skinner Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitry Orlov (19)1–2
- P21:14Igor Chernyshov Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (40), William Eklund (16)1–1
- P110:38Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Hartman (7), Vincent Hinostroza (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:14Igor Chernyshov Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (40), William Eklund (16)MIN 1 – 1 SJ · SJ 24% → 41% +16SJ 24% → 41%+16 pts
- P216:47Jeff Skinner Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitry Orlov (19)MIN 1 – 2 SJ · SJ 43% → 66% +23SJ 43% → 66%+23 pts
- P34:16Macklin Celebrini Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Igor Chernyshov (5)MIN 1 – 3 SJ · SJ 71% → 90% +19SJ 71% → 90%+19 pts
- P36:40Marcus Foligno Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Bogosian (2), Jake Middleton (8)MIN 2 – 3 SJ · MIN 8% → 26% +18MIN 8% → 26%+18 pts
- P38:47Mats Zuccarello Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: noneMIN 3 – 3 SJ · MIN 24% → 55% +31MIN 24% → 55%+31 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 62%
- ML MIN -180 / SJ +150
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- MIN: Elo 62.2%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- MIN -161
- SJ +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.6 – 2.9 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1422 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −6 | MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +86 Elo | MIN 62.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 58.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.119th of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 3.530th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+0.5 | Margin | −0.427th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3248.8% | Shot share | 44.2%32nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 3291.9% | Save percentage | 89.6%18th of 32 |
| 3rd of 328–2 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3211–7 | Road vs home | 10–1019th of 32 |
| 17th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 15056th of 32 |
| 7th of 321532 | Elo rating | 142231st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 23–17 | 26–13 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–13 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 15–4 | 26–12 |
| Overs–unders | 19–21 | 19–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 6–2 SJ in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.