San Jose Sharks at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Macklin CelebriniGoals1
- Macklin CelebriniAssists2
- Macklin CelebriniPoints3
Ducks- Troy TerryGoals2
- Troy TerryAssists1
- Troy TerryPoints3
Scoring summary
- P315:58Troy Terry Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason McTavish (15), Jackson LaCombe (17)5–4
- P313:47Zack Ostapchuk Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Vincent Iorio (3), Barclay Goodrow (5)5–3
- P33:07Pavel Mintyukov Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Cutter Gauthier (19), Ian Moore (4)4–3
- P216:26Cutter Gauthier Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Troy Terry (26), Ryan Poehling (12)4–2
- P212:17William Eklund Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (39)4–1
- P26:30Igor Chernyshov Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Macklin Celebrini (38), Sam Dickinson (3)3–1
- P119:12Macklin Celebrini Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Alexander Wennberg (19), Tyler Toffoli (16)2–1
- P115:02Troy Terry Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Nikita Nesterenko (8)1–1
- P110:43Mario Ferraro Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Alexander Wennberg (18), Adam Gaudette (6)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:43Mario Ferraro Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Alexander Wennberg (18), Adam Gaudette (6)SJ 1 – 0 ANA · SJ 41% → 57% +16SJ 41% → 57%+16 pts
- P115:02Troy Terry Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Nikita Nesterenko (8)SJ 1 – 1 ANA · ANA 42% → 59% +17ANA 42% → 59%+17 pts
- P119:12Macklin Celebrini Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Alexander Wennberg (19), Tyler Toffoli (16)SJ 2 – 1 ANA · SJ 41% → 59% +18SJ 41% → 59%+18 pts
- P26:30Igor Chernyshov Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Macklin Celebrini (38), Sam Dickinson (3)SJ 3 – 1 ANA · SJ 61% → 78% +17SJ 61% → 78%+17 pts
- P33:07Pavel Mintyukov Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Cutter Gauthier (19), Ian Moore (4)SJ 4 – 3 ANA · ANA 11% → 29% +18ANA 11% → 29%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ducks 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- ANA 60%
- ML SJ +142 / ANA -170
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- ANA: Elo 63.2%, market 60.4%
- Fair odds
- ANA -152
- SJ +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 3.0 – 3.5 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1419 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | +1 | SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ANA +94 Elo | ANA 63.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 63.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 63.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ANA 60.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.43rd of 32 |
| 31st of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.531st of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.115th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3244.7% | Shot share | 51.6%8th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 88.5%30th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 20th of 328–10 | Road vs home | 12–62nd of 32 |
| 4th of 321507 | Opponent Elo | 149725th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321419 | Elo rating | 147126th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 25–13 | 19–19 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 2–9 |
| Underdog | 25–12 | 17–10 |
| Overs–unders | 18–20 | 24–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 1–7 ANA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.