San Jose Sharks at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Igor ChernyshovGoals1
- Igor ChernyshovAssists1
- William EklundPoints2
Canucks- Drew O'ConnorGoals1
- Filip HronekAssists2
- Filip HronekPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:55Collin Graf Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Wennberg (17), Mario Ferraro (7)6–3
- P316:20Macklin Celebrini Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Igor Chernyshov (4), William Eklund (15)5–3
- P310:43Drew O'Connor Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: none4–3
- P34:47Igor Chernyshov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Gaudette (5), Dmitry Orlov (18)4–2
- P30:36Marco Rossi Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (20), Conor Garland (15)3–2
- P212:38William Eklund Goal (9) , assists: none3–1
- P110:04Linus Karlsson Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Garland (14), Filip Hronek (19)2–1
- P17:55John Klingberg Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (37)2–0
- P16:11Ryan Reaves Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Barclay Goodrow (4), Vincent Iorio (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:11Ryan Reaves Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Barclay Goodrow (4), Vincent Iorio (2)SJ 1 – 0 VAN · SJ 43% → 58% +15SJ 43% → 58%+15 pts
- P212:38William Eklund Goal (9) , assists: noneSJ 3 – 1 VAN · SJ 66% → 83% +17SJ 66% → 83%+17 pts
- P30:36Marco Rossi Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (20), Conor Garland (15)SJ 3 – 2 VAN · VAN 12% → 30% +18VAN 12% → 30%+18 pts
- P34:47Igor Chernyshov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Gaudette (5), Dmitry Orlov (18)SJ 4 – 2 VAN · SJ 74% → 91% +18SJ 74% → 91%+18 pts
- P310:43Drew O'Connor Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: noneSJ 4 – 3 VAN · VAN 4% → 20% +16VAN 4% → 20%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canucks 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- VAN 57%
- ML SJ +124 / VAN -148
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.5 pts
- VAN: Elo 65.7%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- VAN -134
- SJ +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 3.0 – 3.5 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1412 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +9 | SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +113 Elo | VAN 65.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 60.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VAN 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 32 |
| 32nd of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.427th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−0.5 | Margin | −0.530th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3244.3% | Shot share | 47.4%26th of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 89.3%20th of 32 |
| 18th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 22nd of 327–10 | Road vs home | 4–1132nd of 32 |
| 4th of 321508 | Opponent Elo | 150311th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321412 | Elo rating | 147526th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 24–13 | 20–16 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 1–6 |
| Underdog | 24–12 | 19–10 |
| Overs–unders | 17–20 | 21–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 2–7 VAN in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.