Tampa Bay Lightning at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Darren RaddyshGoals3
- Nikita KucherovAssists4
- Nikita KucherovPoints5
Sharks- Pavol RegendaGoals3
- Jeff SkinnerAssists2
- Pavol RegendaPoints3
Scoring summary
- P316:11Pavol Regenda Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jeff Skinner (5)7–3
- P216:53Darren Raddysh Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (39), Nick Paul (6)7–2
- P214:08Nikita Kucherov Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (14), Brayden Point (16)6–2
- P29:50Pavol Regenda Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Timothy Liljegren (6), Jeff Skinner (4)5–2
- P23:55Dominic James Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (13)5–1
- P22:49Darren Raddysh Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (38), Jake Guentzel (25)4–1
- P110:50Pavol Regenda Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Timothy Liljegren (5), Macklin Celebrini (41)3–1
- P16:46Brandon Hagel Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (24), Charle-Edouard D'Astous (11)3–0
- P14:08Darren Raddysh Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (37), Gage Goncalves (9)2–0
- P12:37Brayden Point Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Crozier (8), Nikita Kucherov (36)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:37Brayden Point Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Crozier (8), Nikita Kucherov (36)TB 1 – 0 SJ · TB 65% → 78% +13TB 65% → 78%+13 pts
- P14:08Darren Raddysh Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (37), Gage Goncalves (9)TB 2 – 0 SJ · TB 78% → 87% +10TB 78% → 87%+10 pts
- P16:46Brandon Hagel Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (24), Charle-Edouard D'Astous (11)TB 3 – 0 SJ · TB 88% → 94% +6TB 88% → 94%+6 pts
- P110:50Pavol Regenda Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Timothy Liljegren (5), Macklin Celebrini (41)TB 3 – 1 SJ · SJ 6% → 12% +6SJ 6% → 12%+6 pts
- P22:49Darren Raddysh Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (38), Jake Guentzel (25)TB 4 – 1 SJ · TB 89% → 96% +6TB 89% → 96%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- TB 66%
- ML TB -218 / SJ +180
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- TB: Elo 66.4%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- TB -192
- SJ +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.7 – 2.8 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1559 | 1425 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +15 | −5 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.36 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +118 Elo | TB 66.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 64.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 64.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.117th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.529th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.7 | Margin | −0.428th of 32 |
| 14th of 3250.7% | Shot share | 44.5%32nd of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 89.6%17th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 1st of 3213–7 | Road vs home | 11–1019th of 32 |
| 14th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 15063rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 321559 | Elo rating | 142531st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 18–22 | 27–13 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–22 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 9–0 | 27–12 |
| Overs–unders | 21–19 | 20–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 3–1 SJ in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.