Montreal Canadiens at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Juraj SlafkovskyGoals2
- Juraj SlafkovskyAssists1
- Juraj SlafkovskyPoints3
Lightning- Nikita KucherovGoals2
- Oliver BjorkstrandAssists2
- Nikita KucherovPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Brayden Point Goal Snap Shot0–2
- SO0:00Gage Goncalves Goal Wrist Shot0–2
- P319:56Juraj Slafkovský Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Demidov (22), Lane Hutson (31)4–4
- P312:17Noah Dobson Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (19), Mike Matheson (14)3–4
- P39:16Juraj Slafkovský Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Kapanen (9)2–4
- P31:40Pontus Holmberg Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (12), Charle-Edouard D'Astous (9)1–4
- P31:06Ivan Demidov Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (15), Noah Dobson (18)1–3
- P214:49Nick Paul Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (11), Maxim Groshev (1)0–3
- P212:11Nikita Kucherov Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden Point (15), Gage Goncalves (8)0–2
- P22:28Nikita Kucherov Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Gage Goncalves (7)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:28Nikita Kucherov Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Gage Goncalves (7)MTL 0 – 1 TB · TB 56% → 73% +17TB 56% → 73%+17 pts
- P212:11Nikita Kucherov Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden Point (15), Gage Goncalves (8)MTL 0 – 2 TB · TB 75% → 88% +14TB 75% → 88%+14 pts
- P214:49Nick Paul Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (11), Maxim Groshev (1)MTL 0 – 3 TB · TB 89% → 96% +7TB 89% → 96%+7 pts
- P312:17Noah Dobson Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (19), Mike Matheson (14)MTL 3 – 4 TB · MTL 2% → 14% +12MTL 2% → 14%+12 pts
- P319:56Juraj Slafkovský Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Demidov (22), Lane Hutson (31)MTL 4 – 4 TB · MTL 0% → 50% +50MTL 0% → 50%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TB 57%
- ML MTL +124 / TB -148
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- TB: Elo 55.3%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- TB -134
- MTL +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 3.0 – 3.5 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | TB on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +11 | −15 | MTL: Jacob Fowler: team allows 0.27 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · TB: Jonas Johansson: team allows 0.37 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +37 Elo | TB 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 59.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 58.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.39th of 32 |
| 24th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.63rd of 32 |
| 15th of 320.0 | Margin | +0.63rd of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.2% | Shot share | 50.9%12th of 32 |
| 30th of 3288.5% | Save percentage | 90.7%8th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 6th of 3210–7 | Road vs home | 10–917th of 32 |
| 25th of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 15047th of 32 |
| 18th of 321493 | Elo rating | 15503rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 18–19 | 17–20 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–15 | 9–20 |
| Underdog | 14–4 | 8–0 |
| Overs–unders | 24–13 | 18–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 2–6 TB in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.