Tampa Bay Lightning at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Nikita KucherovGoals1
- Brandon HagelAssists3
- Brandon HagelPoints3
Ducks- Mason McTavishGoals1
- Pavel MintyukovAssists1
- Jansen HarkinsPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT2:47Darren Raddysh Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (16), Andrei Vasilevskiy (1)4–3
- P313:02Mason McTavish Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Mintyukov (6)3–3
- P38:00Nikita Kucherov Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (15), Charle-Edouard D'Astous (10)3–2
- P33:57Beckett Sennecke Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: none2–2
- P219:11Brayden Point Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Max Crozier (7), Nikita Kucherov (33)2–1
- P215:17Jansen Harkins Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ross Johnston (9)1–1
- P113:30J.J. Moser Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Darren Raddysh (20), Brandon Hagel (14)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P219:11Brayden Point Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Max Crozier (7), Nikita Kucherov (33)TB 2 – 1 ANA · TB 55% → 77% +22TB 55% → 77%+22 pts
- P33:57Beckett Sennecke Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: noneTB 2 – 2 ANA · ANA 21% → 46% +25ANA 21% → 46%+25 pts
- P38:00Nikita Kucherov Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (15), Charle-Edouard D'Astous (10)TB 3 – 2 ANA · TB 54% → 82% +28TB 54% → 82%+28 pts
- P313:02Mason McTavish Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Mintyukov (6)TB 3 – 3 ANA · ANA 13% → 47% +34ANA 13% → 47%+34 pts
- OT2:47Darren Raddysh Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (16), Andrei Vasilevskiy (1)TB 4 – 3 ANA · TB 52% → 97% +46TB 52% → 97%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TB 58%
- ML TB -155 / ANA +130
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- TB: Elo 59.2%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -140
- ANA +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.5 – 3.0 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +15 | 0 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.37 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +65 Elo | TB 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 55.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.43rd of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.532nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.7 | Margin | −0.118th of 32 |
| 14th of 3250.6% | Shot share | 52.2%7th of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 88.2%31st of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3211–7 | Road vs home | 12–73rd of 32 |
| 9th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 149428th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321553 | Elo rating | 146828th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–21 | 19–20 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 9–21 | 2–10 |
| Underdog | 8–0 | 17–10 |
| Overs–unders | 19–19 | 25–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 4–1 ANA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.