Tampa Bay Lightning at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Brayden PointGoals2
- Nikita KucherovAssists2
- Nikita KucherovPoints3
Kings- Andrei KuzmenkoGoals1
- Andrei KuzmenkoAssists1
- Kevin FialaPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:15Nikita Kucherov Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Darren Raddysh (22)5–3
- P318:19Gage Goncalves Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (23), Anthony Cirelli (13)4–3
- P316:41Anthony Cirelli Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Brandon Hagel (17), Nikita Kucherov (35)3–3
- P31:37Kevin Fiala Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Corey Perry (12), Andrei Kuzmenko (6)2–3
- P218:07Brayden Point Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Darren Raddysh (21), J.J. Moser (10)2–2
- P16:14Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Corey Perry (11), Kevin Fiala (13)1–2
- P14:43Jeff Malott Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Corey Perry (10)1–1
- P13:34Brayden Point Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (22), Nikita Kucherov (34)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:43Jeff Malott Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Corey Perry (10)TB 1 – 1 LA · LA 38% → 53% +15LA 38% → 53%+15 pts
- P218:07Brayden Point Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Darren Raddysh (21), J.J. Moser (10)TB 2 – 2 LA · TB 26% → 48% +22TB 26% → 48%+22 pts
- P31:37Kevin Fiala Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Corey Perry (12), Andrei Kuzmenko (6)TB 2 – 3 LA · LA 52% → 76% +24LA 52% → 76%+24 pts
- P316:41Anthony Cirelli Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Brandon Hagel (17), Nikita Kucherov (35)TB 3 – 3 LA · TB 6% → 49% +43TB 6% → 49%+43 pts
- P318:19Gage Goncalves Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (23), Anthony Cirelli (13)TB 4 – 3 LA · TB 49% → 98% +49TB 49% → 98%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- LA 53%
- ML TB +105 / LA -125
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.1 pts
- LA: Elo 56.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- LA -114
- TB +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 2.7 – 2.8 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | TB on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −15 | +10 | TB: Jonas Johansson: team allows 0.38 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +44 Elo | LA 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 57.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.629th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 2.74th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.7 | Margin | −0.119th of 32 |
| 14th of 3250.6% | Shot share | 51.2%10th of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 91.0%5th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3212–7 | Road vs home | 5–1230th of 32 |
| 12th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 149721st of 32 |
| 2nd of 321554 | Elo rating | 150912th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–22 | 15–23 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–22 | 5–19 |
| Underdog | 8–0 | 10–4 |
| Overs–unders | 20–19 | 15–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 2–3 LA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.