Pittsburgh Penguins at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Sidney CrosbyGoals1
- Ben KindelAssists2
- Sidney CrosbyPoints2
Blue Jackets- Zach WerenskiGoals1
- Denton MateychukAssists2
- Zach WerenskiPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT2:22Sidney Crosby Goal (24) Backhand, assists: Erik Karlsson (28), Yegor Chinakhov (4)5–4
- P319:46Rickard Rakell Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Anthony Mantha (15), Sidney Crosby (23)4–4
- P33:28Thomas Novak Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Ben Kindel (10)3–4
- P216:51Noel Acciari Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Dewar (7)2–4
- P20:47Zach Werenski Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Boone Jenner (13), Mathieu Olivier (7)1–4
- P118:38Kirill Marchenko Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (29), Denton Mateychuk (13)1–3
- P18:48Mason Marchment Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Adam Fantilli (14), Kirill Marchenko (18)1–2
- P18:21Dmitri Voronkov Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Denton Mateychuk (12)1–1
- P11:50Ville Koivunen Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Ben Kindel (9), Jack St. Ivany (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:21Dmitri Voronkov Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Denton Mateychuk (12)PIT 1 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 38% → 54% +16CBJ 38% → 54%+16 pts
- P18:48Mason Marchment Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Adam Fantilli (14), Kirill Marchenko (18)PIT 1 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 54% → 69% +15CBJ 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P33:28Thomas Novak Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Ben Kindel (10)PIT 3 – 4 CBJ · PIT 7% → 23% +15PIT 7% → 23%+15 pts
- P319:46Rickard Rakell Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Anthony Mantha (15), Sidney Crosby (23)PIT 4 – 4 CBJ · PIT <1% → 50% +50PIT <1% → 50%+50 pts
- OT2:22Sidney Crosby Goal (24) Backhand, assists: Erik Karlsson (28), Yegor Chinakhov (4)PIT 5 – 4 CBJ · PIT 49% → 96% +47PIT 49% → 96%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jackets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CBJ 54%
- ML PIT +110 / CBJ -130
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.0 pts
- CBJ: Elo 58.3%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -119
- PIT +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.1 – 3.4 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | CBJ and PIT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −6 | +10 | PIT: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +58 Elo | CBJ 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 55.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CBJ 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.119th of 32 |
| 18th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.324th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.224th of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.7% | Shot share | 49.7%19th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 89.9%13th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 10th of 3210–9 | Road vs home | 9–1022nd of 32 |
| 25th of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 15063rd of 32 |
| 25th of 321481 | Elo rating | 148919th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 24–16 | 21–19 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–10 | 2–10 |
| Underdog | 20–6 | 19–9 |
| Overs–unders | 21–19 | 20–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 5–4 CBJ in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.