Detroit Red Wings at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Andrew CoppGoals1
- Patrick KaneAssists1
- James van RiemsdykPoints1
Penguins- Sidney CrosbyGoals2
- Erik KarlssonAssists2
- Sidney CrosbyPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT0:58Kris Letang Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (20), Bryan Rust (20)3–4
- P317:02Alex DeBrincat Goal (21) Backhand, assists: Lucas Raymond (33), Dylan Larkin (17)3–3
- P315:51Blake Lizotte Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (27), Parker Wotherspoon (11)2–3
- P21:01Andrew Copp Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Ben Chiarot (5), Patrick Kane (18)2–2
- P117:46James van Riemsdyk Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Marco Kasper (3), Simon Edvinsson (10)1–2
- P15:46Sidney Crosby Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–2
- P14:08Sidney Crosby Goal (22) Slap Shot, assists: Anthony Mantha (14), Erik Karlsson (26)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:08Sidney Crosby Goal (22) Slap Shot, assists: Anthony Mantha (14), Erik Karlsson (26)DET 0 – 1 PIT · PIT 55% → 69% +14PIT 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P21:01Andrew Copp Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Ben Chiarot (5), Patrick Kane (18)DET 2 – 2 PIT · DET 29% → 46% +17DET 29% → 46%+17 pts
- P315:51Blake Lizotte Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (27), Parker Wotherspoon (11)DET 2 – 3 PIT · PIT 51% → 92% +41PIT 51% → 92%+41 pts
- P317:02Alex DeBrincat Goal (21) Backhand, assists: Lucas Raymond (33), Dylan Larkin (17)DET 3 – 3 PIT · DET 5% → 49% +44DET 5% → 49%+44 pts
- OT0:58Kris Letang Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (20), Bryan Rust (20)DET 3 – 4 PIT · PIT 51% → 93% +41PIT 51% → 93%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Penguins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 55%
- ML DET +114 / PIT -135
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- PIT: Elo 53.5%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- PIT -123
- DET +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.1 – 3.4 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | DET on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −7 | DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · PIT: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +25 Elo | PIT 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 54.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.212th of 32 |
| 18th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.220th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.1 | Margin | 0.017th of 32 |
| 8th of 3251.5% | Shot share | 50.2%15th of 32 |
| 24th of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 89.4%20th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 10th of 3210–9 | Road vs home | 7–1127th of 32 |
| 27th of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 149529th of 32 |
| 14th of 321504 | Elo rating | 147325th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 19–22 | 23–15 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–16 | 4–9 |
| Underdog | 15–6 | 19–6 |
| Overs–unders | 21–20 | 20–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 3–3 PIT in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.