Carolina Hurricanes at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Mark JankowskiGoals1
- Mike ReillyAssists1
- Mark JankowskiPoints1
Penguins- Anthony ManthaGoals2
- Erik KarlssonAssists2
- Anthony ManthaPoints2
Scoring summary
- P218:25Mark Jankowski Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Nystrom (7), Mike Reilly (5)1–5
- P218:08Anthony Mantha Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Justin Brazeau (8), Thomas Novak (13)0–5
- P215:08Thomas Novak Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Parker Wotherspoon (10), Erik Karlsson (25)0–4
- P117:12Anthony Mantha Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (19), Erik Karlsson (24)0–3
- P116:07Justin Brazeau Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Brett Kulak (3)0–2
- P13:46Sidney Crosby Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Rickard Rakell (9), Bryan Rust (18)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:46Sidney Crosby Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Rickard Rakell (9), Bryan Rust (18)CAR 0 – 1 PIT · PIT 46% → 61% +15PIT 46% → 61%+15 pts
- P116:07Justin Brazeau Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Brett Kulak (3)CAR 0 – 2 PIT · PIT 63% → 78% +15PIT 63% → 78%+15 pts
- P117:12Anthony Mantha Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (19), Erik Karlsson (24)CAR 0 – 3 PIT · PIT 78% → 89% +11PIT 78% → 89%+11 pts
- P215:08Thomas Novak Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Parker Wotherspoon (10), Erik Karlsson (25)CAR 0 – 4 PIT · PIT 95% → 99% +4PIT 95% → 99%+4 pts
- P218:08Anthony Mantha Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Justin Brazeau (8), Thomas Novak (13)CAR 0 – 5 PIT · PIT >99% → >99% +1PIT >99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 54%
- ML CAR -130 / PIT +110
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- CAR: Elo 50.2%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CAR -119
- PIT +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.4 – 3.1 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CAR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −11 | +1 | CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.27 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · PIT: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +1 Elo | CAR 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 50.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.212th of 32 |
| 10th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.322nd of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.5 | Margin | −0.121st of 32 |
| 1st of 3257.1% | Shot share | 50.2%15th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 89.2%21st of 32 |
| 4th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3211–7 | Road vs home | 6–1129th of 32 |
| 10th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 149428th of 32 |
| 6th of 321546 | Elo rating | 146827th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 14–24 | 22–15 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 12–23 | 4–9 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 18–6 |
| Overs–unders | 20–18 | 20–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 5–2 PIT in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 7.