Buffalo Sabres at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Josh DoanGoals1
- Owen PowerAssists1
- Josh DoanPoints1
Blue Jackets- Denton MateychukGoals1
- Damon SeversonAssists2
- Denton MateychukPoints2
Scoring summary
- P311:46Cole Sillinger Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Denton Mateychuk (11), Zach Werenski (28)1–5
- P28:04Mathieu Olivier Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Zach Aston-Reese (4), Damon Severson (14)1–4
- P117:12Dmitri Voronkov Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Ivan Provorov (10), Damon Severson (13)1–3
- P114:04Brendan Gaunce Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: none1–2
- P111:26Josh Doan Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Norris (8), Owen Power (9)1–1
- P13:00Denton Mateychuk Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Boone Jenner (12), Zach Werenski (27)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:00Denton Mateychuk Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Boone Jenner (12), Zach Werenski (27)BUF 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 50% → 65% +15CBJ 50% → 65%+15 pts
- P111:26Josh Doan Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Norris (8), Owen Power (9)BUF 1 – 1 CBJ · BUF 34% → 50% +16BUF 34% → 50%+16 pts
- P114:04Brendan Gaunce Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: noneBUF 1 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 50% → 66% +16CBJ 50% → 66%+16 pts
- P117:12Dmitri Voronkov Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Ivan Provorov (10), Damon Severson (13)BUF 1 – 3 CBJ · CBJ 67% → 81% +14CBJ 67% → 81%+14 pts
- P28:04Mathieu Olivier Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Zach Aston-Reese (4), Damon Severson (14)BUF 1 – 4 CBJ · CBJ 84% → 93% +9CBJ 84% → 93%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jackets 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CBJ 50%
- ML BUF -110 / CBJ -110
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.2 pts
- CBJ: Elo 53.2%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -100
- BUF -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.3 – 3.3 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +9 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +22 Elo | CBJ 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 51.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CBJ 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.021st of 32 |
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.426th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.327th of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.5% | Shot share | 49.6%19th of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 89.7%14th of 32 |
| 1st of 3210–0 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 20th of 329–11 | Road vs home | 8–1024th of 32 |
| 9th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 15072nd of 32 |
| 13th of 321504 | Elo rating | 148420th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–19 | 20–19 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–9 | 2–10 |
| Underdog | 13–10 | 18–9 |
| Overs–unders | 18–21 | 20–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 3–4 CBJ in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.