Pittsburgh Penguins at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Rickard RakellGoals1
- Sidney CrosbyAssists2
- Sidney CrosbyPoints2
Red Wings- Alex DeBrincatGoals1
- Alex DeBrincatPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:28Connor Dewar Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Blake Lizotte (5), Kris Letang (18)4–1
- P319:00Rickard Rakell Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (22), Brett Kulak (4)3–1
- P215:06Alex DeBrincat Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: none2–1
- P117:30Yegor Chinakhov Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Ben Kindel (8), Parker Wotherspoon (13)2–0
- P13:44Bryan Rust Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (21), Parker Wotherspoon (12)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:44Bryan Rust Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (21), Parker Wotherspoon (12)PIT 1 – 0 DET · PIT 45% → 60% +15PIT 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P117:30Yegor Chinakhov Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Ben Kindel (8), Parker Wotherspoon (13)PIT 2 – 0 DET · PIT 63% → 78% +15PIT 63% → 78%+15 pts
- P215:06Alex DeBrincat Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: nonePIT 2 – 1 DET · DET 15% → 31% +17DET 15% → 31%+17 pts
- P319:00Rickard Rakell Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (22), Brett Kulak (4)PIT 3 – 1 DET · PIT >99% → >99% +0PIT >99% → >99%+0 pts
- P319:28Connor Dewar Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Blake Lizotte (5), Kris Letang (18)PIT 4 – 1 DET · PIT >99% → 100% +0PIT >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- DET 55%
- ML PIT +114 / DET -135
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.2 pts
- DET: Elo 58.3%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -123
- PIT +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.1 – 3.4 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +1 | PIT: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +58 Elo | DET 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 56.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.118th of 32 |
| 20th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.218th of 32 |
| 12th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.119th of 32 |
| 15th of 3250.3% | Shot share | 51.3%8th of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 89.1%23rd of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 13th of 329–9 | Road vs home | 14–82nd of 32 |
| 26th of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 149527th of 32 |
| 25th of 321475 | Elo rating | 150116th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 23–16 | 20–22 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–10 | 4–16 |
| Underdog | 19–6 | 16–6 |
| Overs–unders | 21–18 | 22–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 4–3 DET in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.