Calgary Flames at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Morgan FrostGoals1
- Connor ZaryAssists2
- Mikael BacklundPoints2
Blue Jackets- Charlie CoyleGoals2
- Zach WerenskiAssists2
- Charlie CoylePoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:57Charlie Coyle Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Boone Jenner (15), Zach Werenski (33)3–5
- P318:26Boone Jenner Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: none3–4
- P310:05Mikael Backlund Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Morgan Frost (13), Connor Zary (9)3–3
- P34:46Zach Werenski Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Fantilli (17), Kirill Marchenko (22)2–3
- P219:18Rasmus Andersson Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (8), Connor Zary (8)2–2
- P212:00Morgan Frost Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Mikael Backlund (18), Yegor Sharangovich (7)1–2
- P113:24Charlie Coyle Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Christiansen (2), Dmitri Voronkov (14)0–2
- P13:57Dante Fabbro Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (32), Charlie Coyle (20)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:57Dante Fabbro Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (32), Charlie Coyle (20)CGY 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 57% → 71% +14CBJ 57% → 71%+14 pts
- P219:18Rasmus Andersson Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (8), Connor Zary (8)CGY 2 – 2 CBJ · CGY 23% → 46% +22CGY 23% → 46%+22 pts
- P34:46Zach Werenski Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Fantilli (17), Kirill Marchenko (22)CGY 2 – 3 CBJ · CBJ 54% → 79% +26CBJ 54% → 79%+26 pts
- P310:05Mikael Backlund Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Morgan Frost (13), Connor Zary (9)CGY 3 – 3 CBJ · CGY 17% → 47% +30CGY 17% → 47%+30 pts
- P318:26Boone Jenner Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: noneCGY 3 – 4 CBJ · CBJ 51% → 99% +48CBJ 51% → 99%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jackets 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CBJ 57%
- ML CGY +124 / CBJ -148
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- CBJ: Elo 55.6%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -134
- CGY +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 3.0 – 3.5 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +4 | CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +39 Elo | CBJ 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 56.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CBJ 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.021st of 32 |
| 11th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.428th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.425th of 32 |
| 15th of 3250.4% | Shot share | 49.5%18th of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 89.7%15th of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 32nd of 327–17 | Road vs home | 9–1126th of 32 |
| 26th of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 15063rd of 32 |
| 25th of 321476 | Elo rating | 147824th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 26–19 | 22–23 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–6 | 2–12 |
| Underdog | 20–13 | 20–11 |
| Overs–unders | 26–19 | 23–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 2–3 CBJ in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.