Calgary Flames at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Joel FarabeeGoals1
- Hunter BrzustewiczAssists1
- Joel FarabeePoints1
Canadiens- Alexandre TexierGoals1
- Alexandre TexierAssists2
- Alexandre TexierPoints3
Scoring summary
- P33:56Cole Caufield Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Alexandre Texier (8), Nick Suzuki (33)1–4
- P217:39Joel Farabee Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (6), Hunter Brzustewicz (1)1–3
- P28:12Oliver Kapanen Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (18)0–3
- P27:05Lane Hutson Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (8), Alexandre Texier (7)0–2
- P23:10Alexandre Texier Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Alexandre Carrier (10), Cole Caufield (21)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P23:10Alexandre Texier Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Alexandre Carrier (10), Cole Caufield (21)CGY 0 – 1 MTL · MTL 54% → 71% +17MTL 54% → 71%+17 pts
- P27:05Lane Hutson Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (8), Alexandre Texier (7)CGY 0 – 2 MTL · MTL 72% → 86% +14MTL 72% → 86%+14 pts
- P28:12Oliver Kapanen Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (18)CGY 0 – 3 MTL · MTL 86% → 94% +8MTL 86% → 94%+8 pts
- P217:39Joel Farabee Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (6), Hunter Brzustewicz (1)CGY 1 – 3 MTL · CGY 3% → 10% +7CGY 3% → 10%+7 pts
- P33:56Cole Caufield Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Alexandre Texier (8), Nick Suzuki (33)CGY 1 – 4 MTL · MTL 93% → 99% +6MTL 93% → 99%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canadiens 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- MTL 55%
- ML CGY +114 / MTL -135
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- MTL: Elo 58.1%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- MTL -123
- CGY +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 3.1 – 3.4 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +7 | CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · MTL: Jacob Fowler: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +57 Elo | MTL 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 61.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 60.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MTL 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.47th of 32 |
| 12th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.425th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.3 | Margin | 0.014th of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.7% | Shot share | 48.9%22nd of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 88.3%30th of 32 |
| 5th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 32 |
| 32nd of 326–15 | Road vs home | 10–1020th of 32 |
| 29th of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 150311th of 32 |
| 24th of 321480 | Elo rating | 149817th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 25–17 | 22–20 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 6–6 | 4–16 |
| Underdog | 19–11 | 18–4 |
| Overs–unders | 26–16 | 27–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 4–1 MTL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.