Philadelphia Flyers at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Travis KonecnyGoals1
- Travis KonecnyPoints1
Flames- Connor ZaryGoals1
- Matt CoronatoAssists2
- Connor ZaryPoints2
Scoring summary
- P39:37Connor Zary Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Lomberg (2)1–5
- P217:52Yegor Sharangovich Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Coronato (11), MacKenzie Weegar (11)1–4
- P212:03Rasmus Andersson Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Connor Zary (7), Nazem Kadri (24)1–3
- P28:49Travis Konecny Goal (13) , assists: none1–2
- P23:08Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (10), Yan Kuznetsov (5)0–2
- P113:30Mikael Backlund Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Matt Coronato (10), Blake Coleman (8)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:30Mikael Backlund Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Matt Coronato (10), Blake Coleman (8)PHI 0 – 1 CGY · CGY 55% → 70% +16CGY 55% → 70%+16 pts
- P23:08Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (10), Yan Kuznetsov (5)PHI 0 – 2 CGY · CGY 71% → 85% +13CGY 71% → 85%+13 pts
- P28:49Travis Konecny Goal (13) , assists: nonePHI 1 – 2 CGY · PHI 13% → 27% +14PHI 13% → 27%+14 pts
- P212:03Rasmus Andersson Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Connor Zary (7), Nazem Kadri (24)PHI 1 – 3 CGY · CGY 73% → 88% +14CGY 73% → 88%+14 pts
- P217:52Yegor Sharangovich Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Coronato (11), MacKenzie Weegar (11)PHI 1 – 4 CGY · CGY 90% → 97% +7CGY 90% → 97%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flames 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CGY 55%
- ML PHI +114 / CGY -135
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.7 pts
- CGY: Elo 61.8%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- CGY -123
- PHI +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.6 – 2.9 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −8 | +6 | PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +84 Elo | CGY 61.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 58.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CGY 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.628th of 32 |
| 9th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.325th of 32 |
| 16th of 3250.1% | Shot share | 50.7%12th of 32 |
| 15th of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 90.3%10th of 32 |
| 18th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 14th of 329–9 | Road vs home | 11–76th of 32 |
| 13th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 149723rd of 32 |
| 23rd of 321481 | Elo rating | 148620th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 26–12 | 24–15 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–7 | 5–4 |
| Underdog | 20–5 | 19–11 |
| Overs–unders | 20–18 | 23–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 1–4 CGY in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.