Philadelphia Flyers at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Carl GrundstromGoals1
- Rodrigo AbolsAssists1
- Carl GrundstromPoints1
Kraken- Eeli TolvanenGoals2
- Eeli TolvanenAssists1
- Eeli TolvanenPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:24Eeli Tolvanen Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–4
- P318:03Carl Grundstrom Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Rodrigo Abols (4), Nikita Grebenkin (5)1–3
- P317:31Eeli Tolvanen Goal (6) Deflected, assists: Chandler Stephenson (14)0–3
- P35:49Chandler Stephenson Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Eeli Tolvanen (18)0–2
- P23:48Jordan Eberle Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Kaapo Kakko (6), Matty Beniers (17)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P23:48Jordan Eberle Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Kaapo Kakko (6), Matty Beniers (17)PHI 0 – 1 SEA · SEA 45% → 64% +18SEA 45% → 64%+18 pts
- P35:49Chandler Stephenson Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Eeli Tolvanen (18)PHI 0 – 2 SEA · SEA 75% → 92% +17SEA 75% → 92%+17 pts
- P317:31Eeli Tolvanen Goal (6) Deflected, assists: Chandler Stephenson (14)PHI 0 – 3 SEA · SEA >99% → >99% +0SEA >99% → >99%+0 pts
- P318:03Carl Grundstrom Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Rodrigo Abols (4), Nikita Grebenkin (5)PHI 1 – 3 SEA · PHI <1% → <1% +0PHI <1% → <1%+0 pts
- P318:24Eeli Tolvanen Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: nonePHI 1 – 4 SEA · SEA >99% → >99% +0SEA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flyers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 56%
- ML PHI -142 / SEA +120
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- PHI: Elo 50.7%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -129
- SEA +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.9 – 2.6 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +10 | −11 | PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.27 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +5 Elo | PHI 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 52.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.531st of 32 |
| 9th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.115th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −0.530th of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.8% | Shot share | 46.8%29th of 32 |
| 16th of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 90.6%8th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 13th of 328–8 | Road vs home | 7–1026th of 32 |
| 10th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 149723rd of 32 |
| 22nd of 321481 | Elo rating | 146229th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 25–11 | 22–13 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–6 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 20–5 | 19–10 |
| Overs–unders | 19–17 | 14–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 2–3 SEA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.