Boston Bruins at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Andrew PeekeGoals1
- Mason LohreiAssists1
- Andrew PeekePoints1
Flames- Blake ColemanGoals1
- Mikael BacklundAssists1
- Blake ColemanPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT1:53Connor Zary Goal (5) , assists: none1–2
- P213:32Blake Coleman Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (15), Joel Hanley (6)1–1
- P118:06Andrew Peeke Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Mason Lohrei (13), Sean Kuraly (8)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:06Andrew Peeke Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Mason Lohrei (13), Sean Kuraly (8)BOS 1 – 0 CGY · BOS 46% → 64% +17BOS 46% → 64%+17 pts
- P213:32Blake Coleman Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (15), Joel Hanley (6)BOS 1 – 1 CGY · CGY 32% → 53% +21CGY 32% → 53%+21 pts
- OT1:53Connor Zary Goal (5) , assists: noneBOS 1 – 2 CGY · CGY 51% → 95% +44CGY 51% → 95%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flames 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CGY 54%
- ML BOS +110 / CGY -130
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- CGY: Elo 56.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CGY -119
- BOS +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.6 – 2.9 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +4 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +45 Elo | CGY 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 55.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CGY 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.728th of 32 |
| 24th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.014th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.426th of 32 |
| 27th of 3247.3% | Shot share | 50.9%12th of 32 |
| 19th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 90.2%10th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 32 |
| 20th of 328–10 | Road vs home | 10–79th of 32 |
| 7th of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 149821st of 32 |
| 23rd of 321477 | Elo rating | 148422nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 25–14 | 24–14 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | 5–3 |
| Underdog | 23–9 | 19–11 |
| Overs–unders | 22–17 | 23–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 2–2 CGY in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.