Philadelphia Flyers at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Travis KonecnyGoals1
- Trevor ZegrasAssists2
- Travis KonecnyPoints2
Canucks- Drew O'ConnorGoals1
- Drew O'ConnorAssists1
- Drew O'ConnorPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:23Christian Dvorak Goal (9) Poke, assists: Trevor Zegras (24), Travis Konecny (23)6–3
- P318:16Tom Willander Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none5–3
- P317:19Owen Tippett Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Rodrigo Abols (5), Rasmus Ristolainen (2)5–2
- P31:34Bobby Brink Goal (10) Deflected, assists: Matvei Michkov (13), Noah Cates (12)4–2
- P31:08Drew O'Connor Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: David Kampf (1)3–2
- P216:20Travis Konecny Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Drysdale (15), Trevor Zegras (23)3–1
- P23:40Carl Grundstrom Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Grebenkin (6), Travis Sanheim (14)2–1
- P112:02Noah Cates Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Matvei Michkov (12), Bobby Brink (9)1–1
- P13:45David Kampf Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Drew O'Connor (6), Marcus Pettersson (7)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:45David Kampf Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Drew O'Connor (6), Marcus Pettersson (7)PHI 0 – 1 VAN · VAN 43% → 58% +15VAN 43% → 58%+15 pts
- P112:02Noah Cates Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Matvei Michkov (12), Bobby Brink (9)PHI 1 – 1 VAN · PHI 40% → 56% +16PHI 40% → 56%+16 pts
- P23:40Carl Grundstrom Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Grebenkin (6), Travis Sanheim (14)PHI 2 – 1 VAN · PHI 56% → 73% +17PHI 56% → 73%+17 pts
- P31:08Drew O'Connor Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: David Kampf (1)PHI 3 – 2 VAN · VAN 8% → 23% +15VAN 8% → 23%+15 pts
- P31:34Bobby Brink Goal (10) Deflected, assists: Matvei Michkov (13), Noah Cates (12)PHI 4 – 2 VAN · PHI 78% → 92% +15PHI 78% → 92%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flyers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 57%
- ML PHI -148 / VAN +124
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- PHI: Elo 50.3%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -134
- VAN +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.0 – 2.5 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | VAN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +8 | +6 | PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +2 Elo | PHI 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 53.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.923rd of 32 |
| 9th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.429th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.631st of 32 |
| 16th of 3250.2% | Shot share | 47.0%29th of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 89.4%21st of 32 |
| 18th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 19th of 328–9 | Road vs home | 4–1232nd of 32 |
| 11th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321476 | Elo rating | 147127th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 25–12 | 20–18 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–7 | 1–8 |
| Underdog | 20–5 | 19–10 |
| Overs–unders | 19–18 | 22–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 4–1 VAN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.