Vancouver Canucks at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Linus KarlssonGoals1
- Liam OhgrenAssists1
- Elias PetterssonPoints1
Kraken- Ryan WintertonGoals1
- Jacob MelansonAssists1
- Jared McCannPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Liam Ohgren Goal Wrist Shot1–0
- P25:23Elias Pettersson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Evander Kane (13), Tom Willander (9)2–2
- P119:40Ryan Winterton Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Melanson (1), Joey Daccord (3)1–2
- P115:20Linus Karlsson Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Liam Ohgren (2)1–1
- P18:50Jared McCann Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (15), Jordan Eberle (11)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:50Jared McCann Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (15), Jordan Eberle (11)VAN 0 – 1 SEA · SEA 48% → 64% +15SEA 48% → 64%+15 pts
- P115:20Linus Karlsson Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Liam Ohgren (2)VAN 1 – 1 SEA · VAN 35% → 51% +17VAN 35% → 51%+17 pts
- P119:40Ryan Winterton Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Melanson (1), Joey Daccord (3)VAN 1 – 2 SEA · SEA 49% → 66% +17SEA 49% → 66%+17 pts
- P25:23Elias Pettersson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Evander Kane (13), Tom Willander (9)VAN 2 – 2 SEA · VAN 33% → 51% +19VAN 33% → 51%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canucks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- VAN 52%
- ML VAN -118 / SEA -102
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- VAN: Elo 46.9%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- VAN -107
- SEA +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.8 – 2.7 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | SEA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −12 | +6 | VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.29 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +21 Elo | SEA 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 50.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VAN 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.631st of 32 |
| 30th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−0.6 | Margin | −0.427th of 32 |
| 28th of 3247.3% | Shot share | 46.6%29th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 90.8%7th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 11th of 3211–10 | Road vs home | 8–1023rd of 32 |
| 15th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 149626th of 32 |
| 27th of 321468 | Elo rating | 146729th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–17 | 23–13 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–7 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 19–10 | 20–10 |
| Overs–unders | 22–15 | 14–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 2–5 SEA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.