Seattle Kraken at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Vince DunnGoals1
- Adam LarssonAssists1
- Frederick GaudreauPoints1
Flames- Adam KlapkaGoals1
- Ryan LombergAssists1
- Adam KlapkaPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:39Matty Beniers Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared McCann (5)5–1
- P317:25Freddy Gaudreau Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (15)4–1
- P35:12Vince Dunn Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Kaapo Kakko (9), Adam Larsson (7)3–1
- P31:57Shane Wright Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Ben Meyers (4)2–1
- P22:17Jacob Melanson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Winterton (6)1–1
- P16:33Adam Klapka Goal (4) Batted, assists: Ryan Lomberg (3), MacKenzie Weegar (13)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:33Adam Klapka Goal (4) Batted, assists: Ryan Lomberg (3), MacKenzie Weegar (13)SEA 0 – 1 CGY · CGY 58% → 72% +14CGY 58% → 72%+14 pts
- P22:17Jacob Melanson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Winterton (6)SEA 1 – 1 CGY · SEA 27% → 43% +17SEA 27% → 43%+17 pts
- P31:57Shane Wright Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Ben Meyers (4)SEA 2 – 1 CGY · SEA 45% → 71% +25SEA 45% → 71%+25 pts
- P35:12Vince Dunn Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Kaapo Kakko (9), Adam Larsson (7)SEA 3 – 1 CGY · SEA 74% → 91% +18SEA 74% → 91%+18 pts
- P317:25Freddy Gaudreau Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (15)SEA 4 – 1 CGY · SEA >99% → >99% +0SEA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flames 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CGY 58%
- ML SEA +130 / CGY -155
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- CGY: Elo 58.7%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- CGY -140
- SEA +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.5 – 3.0 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | +5 | SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +61 Elo | CGY 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 59.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CGY 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.728th of 32 |
| 11th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.224th of 32 |
| 27th of 3247.2% | Shot share | 50.4%15th of 32 |
| 4th of 3290.9% | Save percentage | 90.4%9th of 32 |
| 5th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 32 |
| 18th of 329–10 | Road vs home | 12–84th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321493 | Opponent Elo | 149528th of 32 |
| 27th of 321471 | Elo rating | 148719th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 26–13 | 25–16 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 6–5 |
| Underdog | 23–10 | 19–11 |
| Overs–unders | 15–24 | 25–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 4–5 CGY in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.