Nashville Predators at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Erik HaulaGoals2
- Steven StamkosAssists2
- Erik HaulaPoints2
Flames- Blake ColemanGoals1
- Matt CoronatoAssists2
- Matt CoronatoPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:31Nicolas Hague Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (13), Michael McCarron (7)4–3
- P312:49Blake Coleman Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (16), Matt Coronato (13)3–3
- P24:08Michael Bunting Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–2
- P113:41Rasmus Andersson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Coronato (12)2–2
- P112:52Erik Haula Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (10), Michael Bunting (12)2–1
- P111:19Erik Haula Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (11), Steven Stamkos (9)1–1
- P11:56Yan Kuznetsov Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (12), Jonathan Huberdeau (13)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:52Erik Haula Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (10), Michael Bunting (12)NSH 2 – 1 CGY · NSH 49% → 65% +16NSH 49% → 65%+16 pts
- P113:41Rasmus Andersson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Coronato (12)NSH 2 – 2 CGY · CGY 35% → 51% +16CGY 35% → 51%+16 pts
- P24:08Michael Bunting Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNSH 3 – 2 CGY · NSH 49% → 67% +18NSH 49% → 67%+18 pts
- P312:49Blake Coleman Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (16), Matt Coronato (13)NSH 3 – 3 CGY · CGY 15% → 50% +36CGY 15% → 50%+36 pts
- P319:31Nicolas Hague Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (13), Michael McCarron (7)NSH 4 – 3 CGY · NSH 50% → >99% +50NSH 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flames 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CGY 51%
- ML NSH -105 / CGY -115
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.0 pts
- CGY: Elo 59.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CGY -104
- NSH +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.7 – 2.8 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +7 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +64 Elo | CGY 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 54.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CGY 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.728th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.911th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−0.5 | Margin | −0.224th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.7% | Shot share | 50.7%13th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 90.5%9th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 23rd of 328–10 | Road vs home | 12–72nd of 32 |
| 1st of 321510 | Opponent Elo | 149625th of 32 |
| 28th of 321465 | Elo rating | 149019th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–20 | 25–15 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–8 | 6–4 |
| Underdog | 17–12 | 19–11 |
| Overs–unders | 19–21 | 24–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 4–4 CGY in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.