Nashville Predators at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Roman JosiGoals1
- Ryan O'ReillyAssists1
- Roman JosiPoints1
Kraken- Matty BeniersGoals2
- Jordan EberleAssists1
- Matty BeniersPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:47Jared McCann Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Lindgren (5)1–4
- P217:34Roman Josi Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (24), Luke Evangelista (24)1–3
- P110:51Matty Beniers Goal (6) Poke, assists: Jordan Eberle (12), Kaapo Kakko (7)0–3
- P110:41Jamie Oleksiak Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Winterton (4), Jacob Melanson (2)0–2
- P13:48Matty Beniers Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Ryker Evans (6)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:48Matty Beniers Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Ryker Evans (6)NSH 0 – 1 SEA · SEA 49% → 64% +15SEA 49% → 64%+15 pts
- P110:41Jamie Oleksiak Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Winterton (4), Jacob Melanson (2)NSH 0 – 2 SEA · SEA 65% → 78% +14SEA 65% → 78%+14 pts
- P110:51Matty Beniers Goal (6) Poke, assists: Jordan Eberle (12), Kaapo Kakko (7)NSH 0 – 3 SEA · SEA 78% → 88% +10SEA 78% → 88%+10 pts
- P217:34Roman Josi Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (24), Luke Evangelista (24)NSH 1 – 3 SEA · NSH 4% → 12% +8NSH 4% → 12%+8 pts
- P317:47Jared McCann Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Lindgren (5)NSH 1 – 4 SEA · SEA >99% → >99% +0SEA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Predators 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NSH 51%
- ML NSH -115 / SEA -105
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- NSH: Elo 47.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- NSH -104
- SEA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.8 – 2.7 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1464 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −8 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +18 Elo | SEA 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 52.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NSH 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.631st of 32 |
| 24th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.429th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.7% | Shot share | 47.1%28th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 90.9%5th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 19th of 328–9 | Road vs home | 8–1125th of 32 |
| 1st of 321510 | Opponent Elo | 149529th of 32 |
| 27th of 321469 | Elo rating | 146430th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–19 | 24–13 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 17–12 | 21–10 |
| Overs–unders | 19–20 | 14–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 3–3 SEA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.