Seattle Kraken at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Cale FleuryGoals1
- Jamie OleksiakAssists1
- Chandler StephensonPoints1
Canucks- Jake DeBruskGoals1
- Jake DeBruskAssists2
- Jake DeBruskPoints3
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Matty Beniers Goal Wrist Shot1–0
- P36:15Linus Karlsson Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Filip Hronek (21), Jake DeBrusk (10)3–3
- P219:22Jake DeBrusk Goal (10) Deflected, assists: Brock Boeser (9), Elias Pettersson (15)3–2
- P218:13Ben Meyers Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Ryan Winterton (5), Jacob Melanson (3)3–1
- P213:06Kiefer Sherwood Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Jake DeBrusk (9), Tom Willander (10)2–1
- P28:53Chandler Stephenson Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (13), Jared McCann (4)2–0
- P117:34Cale Fleury Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Jamie Oleksiak (5), Kaapo Kakko (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:34Cale Fleury Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Jamie Oleksiak (5), Kaapo Kakko (8)SEA 1 – 0 VAN · SEA 45% → 62% +17SEA 45% → 62%+17 pts
- P213:06Kiefer Sherwood Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Jake DeBrusk (9), Tom Willander (10)SEA 2 – 1 VAN · VAN 16% → 33% +17VAN 16% → 33%+17 pts
- P218:13Ben Meyers Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Ryan Winterton (5), Jacob Melanson (3)SEA 3 – 1 VAN · SEA 69% → 87% +17SEA 69% → 87%+17 pts
- P219:22Jake DeBrusk Goal (10) Deflected, assists: Brock Boeser (9), Elias Pettersson (15)SEA 3 – 2 VAN · VAN 12% → 30% +17VAN 12% → 30%+17 pts
- P36:15Linus Karlsson Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Filip Hronek (21), Jake DeBrusk (10)SEA 3 – 3 VAN · VAN 25% → 53% +28VAN 25% → 53%+28 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canucks 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- VAN 56%
- ML SEA +120 / VAN -142
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- VAN: Elo 58.5%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- VAN -129
- SEA +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.6 – 2.9 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | SEA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +3 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +59 Elo | VAN 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 62.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 61.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VAN 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.923rd of 32 |
| 12th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.531st of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.631st of 32 |
| 28th of 3247.1% | Shot share | 47.1%27th of 32 |
| 4th of 3291.0% | Save percentage | 89.3%21st of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 23rd of 328–10 | Road vs home | 4–1332nd of 32 |
| 29th of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 150018th of 32 |
| 27th of 321469 | Elo rating | 146628th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 25–13 | 20–19 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 1–8 |
| Underdog | 22–10 | 19–11 |
| Overs–unders | 14–24 | 23–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 5–3 VAN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.