Montreal Canadiens at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Lane HutsonGoals1
- Phillip DanaultAssists2
- Juraj SlafkovskyPoints2
Stars- Wyatt JohnstonGoals2
- Jason RobertsonAssists1
- Wyatt JohnstonPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT3:40Lane Hutson Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (7)4–3
- P311:07Wyatt Johnston Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Miro Heiskanen (29), Matt Duchene (5)3–3
- P218:39Juraj Slafkovský Goal (15) Slap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (32), Lane Hutson (35)3–2
- P211:59Oliver Kapanen Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Ivan Demidov (26), Juraj Slafkovský (17)2–2
- P210:14Wyatt Johnston Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (41), Thomas Harley (13)1–2
- P113:53Mavrik Bourque Goal (7) Wrap-around, assists: Jason Robertson (25), Roope Hintz (20)1–1
- P18:42Brendan Gallagher Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Phillip Danault (6), Alexandre Carrier (9)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P210:14Wyatt Johnston Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (41), Thomas Harley (13)MTL 1 – 2 DAL · DAL 59% → 77% +18DAL 59% → 77%+18 pts
- P211:59Oliver Kapanen Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Ivan Demidov (26), Juraj Slafkovský (17)MTL 2 – 2 DAL · MTL 23% → 42% +19MTL 23% → 42%+19 pts
- P218:39Juraj Slafkovský Goal (15) Slap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (32), Lane Hutson (35)MTL 3 – 2 DAL · MTL 43% → 66% +24MTL 43% → 66%+24 pts
- P311:07Wyatt Johnston Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Miro Heiskanen (29), Matt Duchene (5)MTL 3 – 3 DAL · DAL 20% → 55% +34DAL 20% → 55%+34 pts
- OT3:40Lane Hutson Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (7)MTL 4 – 3 DAL · MTL 48% → >99% +51MTL 48% → >99%+51 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 62%
- ML MTL +154 / DAL -185
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.4 pts
- DAL: Elo 67.7%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- DAL -165
- MTL +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.9 – 3.6 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | MTL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −8 | −1 | MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +128 Elo | DAL 67.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 67.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 67.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.52nd of 32 |
| 26th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.85th of 32 |
| 12th of 320.0 | Margin | +0.73rd of 32 |
| 22nd of 3248.8% | Shot share | 47.5%24th of 32 |
| 30th of 3288.3% | Save percentage | 90.9%5th of 32 |
| 5th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–623rd of 32 |
| 6th of 3212–9 | Road vs home | 12–84th of 32 |
| 13th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 149529th of 32 |
| 17th of 321495 | Elo rating | 15513rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 21–20 | 17–24 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–16 | 9–24 |
| Underdog | 17–4 | 8–0 |
| Overs–unders | 26–15 | 20–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 2–3 DAL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.