Montreal Canadiens at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Lane HutsonGoals1
- Alexandre TexierAssists2
- Juraj SlafkovskyPoints2
Hurricanes- Sebastian AhoGoals2
- Sebastian AhoAssists3
- Sebastian AhoPoints5
Scoring summary
- P318:00Lane Hutson Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: none7–5
- P316:58Sebastian Aho Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (20), K'Andre Miller (13)6–5
- P311:20Juraj Slafkovský Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Jayden Struble (6), Ivan Demidov (25)6–4
- P216:46Josh Anderson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: none5–4
- P216:23Cole Caufield Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Alexandre Texier (6)4–4
- P25:01Samuel Blais Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (34), Brendan Gallagher (11)3–4
- P20:54Alexander Nikishin Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (24), Andrei Svechnikov (19)2–4
- P114:51Andrei Svechnikov Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (23), Nikolaj Ehlers (19)2–3
- P112:19Sebastian Aho Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Joel Nystrom (8), Andrei Svechnikov (18)2–2
- P110:47Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Alexander Nikishin (11), Sebastian Aho (22)2–1
- P14:06Oliver Kapanen Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Demidov (24), Juraj Slafkovský (16)2–0
- P13:10Nick Suzuki Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Alexandre Texier (5), Samuel Blais (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:19Sebastian Aho Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Joel Nystrom (8), Andrei Svechnikov (18)MTL 2 – 2 CAR · CAR 43% → 59% +16CAR 43% → 59%+16 pts
- P114:51Andrei Svechnikov Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (23), Nikolaj Ehlers (19)MTL 2 – 3 CAR · CAR 59% → 74% +15CAR 59% → 74%+15 pts
- P216:23Cole Caufield Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Alexandre Texier (6)MTL 4 – 4 CAR · MTL 23% → 44% +21MTL 23% → 44%+21 pts
- P216:46Josh Anderson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: noneMTL 5 – 4 CAR · MTL 44% → 67% +23MTL 44% → 67%+23 pts
- P311:20Juraj Slafkovský Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Jayden Struble (6), Ivan Demidov (25)MTL 6 – 4 CAR · MTL 81% → 97% +16MTL 81% → 97%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 60%
- ML MTL +140 / CAR -166
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.8 pts
- CAR: Elo 62.7%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- CAR -150
- MTL +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 3.0 – 3.5 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +9 | MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · CAR: Brandon Bussi: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +91 Elo | CAR 62.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 65.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 64.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 60.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.35th of 32 |
| 26th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.912th of 32 |
| 15th of 320.0 | Margin | +0.45th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.6% | Shot share | 56.9%1st of 32 |
| 29th of 3288.5% | Save percentage | 89.0%26th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 5th of 3211–8 | Road vs home | 13–72nd of 32 |
| 16th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 32 |
| 18th of 321494 | Elo rating | 15415th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–19 | 14–25 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 4–15 | 12–24 |
| Underdog | 16–4 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 25–14 | 20–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 2–4 CAR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.