Montreal Canadiens at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Nick SuzukiGoals2
- Noah DobsonAssists2
- Nick SuzukiPoints2
Panthers- Sam ReinhartGoals1
- Seth JonesAssists1
- Brad MarchandPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT3:24Nick Suzuki Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (33), Noah Dobson (20)3–2
- P318:38Nick Suzuki Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Ivan Demidov (23), Cole Caufield (20)2–2
- P315:33Cole Caufield Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (32), Noah Dobson (19)1–2
- P315:01Sam Reinhart Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (14), Anton Lundell (18)0–2
- P310:18Brad Marchand Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (16), Seth Jones (18)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P310:18Brad Marchand Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (16), Seth Jones (18)MTL 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 51% → 83% +31FLA 51% → 83%+31 pts
- P315:01Sam Reinhart Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (14), Anton Lundell (18)MTL 0 – 2 FLA · FLA 90% → >99% +9FLA 90% → >99%+9 pts
- P315:33Cole Caufield Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (32), Noah Dobson (19)MTL 1 – 2 FLA · MTL <1% → 9% +8MTL <1% → 9%+8 pts
- P318:38Nick Suzuki Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Ivan Demidov (23), Cole Caufield (20)MTL 2 – 2 FLA · MTL <1% → 50% +49MTL <1% → 50%+49 pts
- OT3:24Nick Suzuki Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (33), Noah Dobson (20)MTL 3 – 2 FLA · MTL 49% → 99% +49MTL 49% → 99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 53%
- ML MTL +105 / FLA -125
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.9 pts
- FLA: Elo 57.2%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- FLA -114
- MTL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 3.2 – 3.3 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | FLA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −10 | −24 | MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.25 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · FLA: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.60 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +50 Elo | FLA 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 57.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.39th of 32 |
| 27th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.218th of 32 |
| 15th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +0.18th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.6% | Shot share | 52.3%6th of 32 |
| 30th of 3288.3% | Save percentage | 89.2%22nd of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 32 |
| 7th of 3210–8 | Road vs home | 13–1012th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 150213th of 32 |
| 18th of 321491 | Elo rating | 15504th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 19–19 | 13–25 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–15 | 7–22 |
| Underdog | 15–4 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 25–13 | 22–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 5–3 FLA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.