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Montreal Canadiens at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast

FinalESPN+, FanDuel SN MW

Away

Canadiens

22-13-6

0–2

at

Home

Blues

17-18-8

MTL 58%STL 42%

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Enterprise Center · ESPN+, FanDuel SN MW

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.

STL favored MTL favored2 scoring plays
P1P2P3STL50%MTL

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Canadiens
    Blues

    Scoring summary

    • P210:13Robert Thomas Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Alexey Toropchenko (3)0–2
    • P110:48Jonatan Berggren Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (14), Otto Stenberg (5)0–1

    Turning points

    The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

    1. P110:48Jonatan Berggren Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (14), Otto Stenberg (5)MTL 0 – 1 STL · STL 42% → 58% +16
    2. P210:13Robert Thomas Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Alexey Toropchenko (3)MTL 0 – 2 STL · STL 64% → 81% +17

    The pick

    Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

    Canadiens 58%

    LeanMiss
    MTL 58%STL 42%

    Forecast Elo ratings alone

    How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

    Market
    MTL 58%
    ML MTL -155 / STL +130
    Pre-line forecast
    MTL 55%
    Elo + market-implied
    Elo ratings
    MTL 54%
    Ratings vs. market
    −4.5 pts
    MTL: Elo 53.8%, market 58.3%
    Fair odds
    MTL -140
    STL +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
    Pregame projection
    MTL 3.5 – 3.0 STL
    Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

    How the number is built

    Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

    FactorMTLSTLWhy
    Team rating14991474Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
    Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
    Rest—−30STL on the second night of a back-to-back
    Starting goalies+3−4MTL: Jacob Fowler: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts)
    Elo ratingsMTL +27 EloMTL 53.8%
    Market-implied ratingsMTL 55.3%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
    Pre-line forecastMTL 55.0%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
    ForecastMTL 58.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

    Tale of the tape

    This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

    Try another venue →
    Montreal Canadiens and St. Louis Blues compared, with each team's league rank
    MTLStatSTL
    3rd of 323.4Goals scored2.532nd of 32
    27th of 323.4Goals allowed3.530th of 32
    11th of 320.0Margin−1.032nd of 32
    23rd of 3248.6%Shot share46.7%29th of 32
    30th of 3288.3%Save percentage88.4%28th of 32
    6th of 326–4Last 105–513th of 32
    4th of 3212–8Road vs home9–1429th of 32
    13th of 321501Opponent Elo149623rd of 32
    16th of 321499Elo rating147426th of 32

    Rating history

    Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

    CanadiensBlues
    14001450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

    Recent form

    Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

    Against the line

    How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

    This seasonMTLSTL
    Puck line21–1919–23
    Last 109–15–5
    Favorite4–151–17
    Underdog17–418–6
    Overs–unders26–1421–21
    Overs–unders, last 105–55–5

    Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

    Head to head

    MTL 1–4 STL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.