Columbus Blue Jackets at Utah Mammoth, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Mikael PyyhtiaGoals1
- Kirill MarchenkoAssists2
- Kirill MarchenkoPoints2
Mammoth- Mikhail SergachevGoals1
- Clayton KellerAssists2
- Clayton KellerPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT1:01Dmitri Voronkov Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Zach Werenski (31), Kirill Marchenko (21)3–2
- P218:31Charlie Coyle Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fantilli (16), Kirill Marchenko (20)2–2
- P21:02Mikhail Sergachev Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (30), Nick Schmaltz (25)1–2
- P116:20Jack McBain Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Clayton Keller (29), Nick DeSimone (2)1–1
- P12:47Mikael Pyyhtia Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Danton Heinen (2), Ivan Provorov (13)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:47Mikael Pyyhtia Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Danton Heinen (2), Ivan Provorov (13)CBJ 1 – 0 UTA · CBJ 39% → 54% +15CBJ 39% → 54%+15 pts
- P116:20Jack McBain Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Clayton Keller (29), Nick DeSimone (2)CBJ 1 – 1 UTA · UTA 42% → 59% +17UTA 42% → 59%+17 pts
- P21:02Mikhail Sergachev Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (30), Nick Schmaltz (25)CBJ 1 – 2 UTA · UTA 59% → 75% +16UTA 59% → 75%+16 pts
- P218:31Charlie Coyle Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fantilli (16), Kirill Marchenko (20)CBJ 2 – 2 UTA · CBJ 22% → 43% +22CBJ 22% → 43%+22 pts
- OT1:01Dmitri Voronkov Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Zach Werenski (31), Kirill Marchenko (21)CBJ 3 – 2 UTA · CBJ 47% → 91% +44CBJ 47% → 91%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mammoth 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 61%
- ML CBJ +145 / UTA -175
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- UTA: Elo 60.7%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- UTA -156
- CBJ +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.9 – 3.6 UTA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | UTA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CBJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −14 | CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · UTA: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.35 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTA +76 Elo | UTA 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTA 61.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTA 61.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.020th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.85th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.4 | Margin | +0.27th of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.3% | Shot share | 52.6%5th of 32 |
| 15th of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 89.3%19th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 27th of 329–15 | Road vs home | 11–88th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321506 | Opponent Elo | 149722nd of 32 |
| 25th of 321475 | Elo rating | 150315th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 21–23 | 20–25 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–12 | 9–19 |
| Underdog | 19–11 | 11–6 |
| Overs–unders | 23–21 | 22–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 1–1 UTA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.
