Ottawa Senators at Utah Mammoth, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Ridly GreigGoals1
- Jake SandersonAssists1
- Ridly GreigPoints1
Mammoth- Lawson CrouseGoals1
- Clayton KellerAssists2
- Clayton KellerPoints2
Scoring summary
- P35:41Daniil But Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack McBain (7), Brandon Tanev (2)1–3
- P117:41Ridly Greig Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Artem Zub (10), Jake Sanderson (23)1–2
- P17:20John Marino Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (25), Nate Schmidt (11)0–2
- P13:59Lawson Crouse Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (24), Mikhail Sergachev (24)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:59Lawson Crouse Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (24), Mikhail Sergachev (24)OTT 0 – 1 UTA · UTA 52% → 66% +15UTA 52% → 66%+15 pts
- P17:20John Marino Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (25), Nate Schmidt (11)OTT 0 – 2 UTA · UTA 67% → 79% +13UTA 67% → 79%+13 pts
- P117:41Ridly Greig Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Artem Zub (10), Jake Sanderson (23)OTT 1 – 2 UTA · OTT 18% → 32% +14OTT 18% → 32%+14 pts
- P35:41Daniil But Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack McBain (7), Brandon Tanev (2)OTT 1 – 3 UTA · UTA 78% → 94% +16UTA 78% → 94%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mammoth 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 52%
- ML OTT -102 / UTA -118
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.9 pts
- UTA: Elo 55.6%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- UTA -107
- OTT +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 3.2 – 3.3 UTA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | UTA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +6 | OTT: Leevi Merilainen: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTA +39 Elo | UTA 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTA 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTA 56.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.021st of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.99th of 32 |
| 12th of 320.0 | Margin | +0.19th of 32 |
| 5th of 3252.7% | Shot share | 53.1%4th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3287.6% | Save percentage | 89.0%24th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 13th of 3210–10 | Road vs home | 9–817th of 32 |
| 31st of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 149721st of 32 |
| 15th of 321501 | Elo rating | 149718th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–24 | 18–25 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 8–22 | 7–19 |
| Underdog | 9–2 | 11–6 |
| Overs–unders | 25–16 | 21–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 3–0 UTA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.