Utah Mammoth at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mammoth- Michael CarconeGoals1
- Barrett HaytonAssists1
- Michael CarconePoints1
Devils- Jesper BrattGoals1
- Brett PesceAssists2
- Jesper BrattPoints2
Scoring summary
- P312:35Michael Carcone Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Barrett Hayton (8), Sean Durzi (10)1–4
- P216:43Dougie Hamilton Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Glendening (4)0–4
- P215:13Nico Hischier Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Jack Hughes (13), Jesper Bratt (24)0–3
- P114:18Timo Meier Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Dawson Mercer (15), Brett Pesce (5)0–2
- P112:27Jesper Bratt Goal (9) Wrap-around, assists: Brett Pesce (4), Jack Hughes (12)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:27Jesper Bratt Goal (9) Wrap-around, assists: Brett Pesce (4), Jack Hughes (12)UTA 0 – 1 NJ · NJ 52% → 67% +16NJ 52% → 67%+16 pts
- P114:18Timo Meier Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Dawson Mercer (15), Brett Pesce (5)UTA 0 – 2 NJ · NJ 68% → 81% +13NJ 68% → 81%+13 pts
- P215:13Nico Hischier Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Jack Hughes (13), Jesper Bratt (24)UTA 0 – 3 NJ · NJ 88% → 96% +8NJ 88% → 96%+8 pts
- P216:43Dougie Hamilton Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Glendening (4)UTA 0 – 4 NJ · NJ 96% → >99% +3NJ 96% → >99%+3 pts
- P312:35Michael Carcone Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Barrett Hayton (8), Sean Durzi (10)UTA 1 – 4 NJ · UTA <1% → <1% +0UTA <1% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 52%
- ML UTA -102 / NJ -118
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- NJ: Elo 51.5%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- NJ -107
- UTA +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTA 2.7 – 2.8 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTA | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | −2 | UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +11 Elo | NJ 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 55.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTA | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.727th of 32 |
| 8th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.325th of 32 |
| 4th of 3253.2% | Shot share | 50.7%13th of 32 |
| 24th of 3289.0% | Save percentage | 90.1%12th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 26th of 3210–14 | Road vs home | 10–918th of 32 |
| 21st of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 15055th of 32 |
| 17th of 321498 | Elo rating | 148421st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTA |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 18–23 | 15–25 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–18 | 4–20 |
| Underdog | 11–5 | 11–5 |
| Overs–unders | 21–20 | 17–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTA 0–3 NJ in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.