Utah Mammoth at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mammoth- Dylan GuentherGoals3
- Clayton KellerAssists2
- Dylan GuentherPoints4
Islanders- Calum RitchieGoals1
- Maxim ShabanovAssists2
- Maxim ShabanovPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:55Nick Schmaltz Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (14), Clayton Keller (23)7–2
- P313:54Dylan Guenther Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Lawson Crouse (9), Sean Durzi (9)6–2
- P311:48Matthew Schaefer Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (14), Max Shabanov (10)5–2
- P35:41Clayton Keller Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (22), Mikhail Sergachev (23)5–1
- P32:52Mikhail Sergachev Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (22), Dylan Guenther (16)4–1
- P216:19Nick Schmaltz Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–1
- P210:20Dylan Guenther Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Lawson Crouse (8), Barrett Hayton (7)2–1
- P22:35Calum Ritchie Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Max Shabanov (9), Marshall Warren (3)1–1
- P20:36Dylan Guenther Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Barrett Hayton (6), Mikhail Sergachev (22)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:36Dylan Guenther Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Barrett Hayton (6), Mikhail Sergachev (22)UTA 1 – 0 NYI · UTA 53% → 70% +17UTA 53% → 70%+17 pts
- P22:35Calum Ritchie Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Max Shabanov (9), Marshall Warren (3)UTA 1 – 1 NYI · NYI 30% → 47% +18NYI 30% → 47%+18 pts
- P210:20Dylan Guenther Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Lawson Crouse (8), Barrett Hayton (7)UTA 2 – 1 NYI · UTA 52% → 72% +19UTA 52% → 72%+19 pts
- P216:19Nick Schmaltz Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: noneUTA 3 – 1 NYI · UTA 74% → 89% +15UTA 74% → 89%+15 pts
- P32:52Mikhail Sergachev Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (22), Dylan Guenther (16)UTA 4 – 1 NYI · UTA 92% → 98% +6UTA 92% → 98%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mammoth 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 53%
- ML UTA -125 / NYI +105
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.3 pts
- UTA: Elo 45.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- UTA -114
- NYI +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTA 2.8 – 2.7 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTA | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | +5 | UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · NYI: David Rittich: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +29 Elo | NYI 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 51.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTA | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 32 |
| 9th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.86th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +0.18th of 32 |
| 4th of 3253.3% | Shot share | 49.8%17th of 32 |
| 25th of 3289.0% | Save percentage | 91.3%4th of 32 |
| 18th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 27th of 329–14 | Road vs home | 12–910th of 32 |
| 20th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 15055th of 32 |
| 18th of 321492 | Elo rating | 148820th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTA |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–23 | 21–19 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–18 | 2–12 |
| Underdog | 11–5 | 19–7 |
| Overs–unders | 20–20 | 17–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTA 1–2 NYI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.
