Utah Mammoth at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mammoth- Michael CarconeGoals1
- Ian ColeAssists1
- Michael CarconePoints1
Rangers- Vincent TrocheckGoals1
- Mika ZibanejadAssists2
- Mika ZibanejadPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT1:06Sean Durzi Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (23), Lawson Crouse (10)3–2
- P36:15Michael Carcone Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: John Marino (16)2–2
- P216:36Vincent Trocheck Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Artemi Panarin (30), Mika Zibanejad (22)1–2
- P212:38Dylan Guenther Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Ian Cole (11)1–1
- P28:29Alexis Lafrenière Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (21), Artemi Panarin (29)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P28:29Alexis Lafrenière Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (21), Artemi Panarin (29)UTA 0 – 1 NYR · NYR 50% → 69% +19NYR 50% → 69%+19 pts
- P212:38Dylan Guenther Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Ian Cole (11)UTA 1 – 1 NYR · UTA 30% → 50% +21UTA 30% → 50%+21 pts
- P216:36Vincent Trocheck Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Artemi Panarin (30), Mika Zibanejad (22)UTA 1 – 2 NYR · NYR 50% → 72% +22NYR 50% → 72%+22 pts
- P36:15Michael Carcone Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: John Marino (16)UTA 2 – 2 NYR · UTA 22% → 50% +28UTA 22% → 50%+28 pts
- OT1:06Sean Durzi Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (23), Lawson Crouse (10)UTA 3 – 2 NYR · UTA 50% → 92% +42UTA 50% → 92%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mammoth 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 50%
- ML UTA -112 / NYR -108
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- UTA: Elo 44.4%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- UTA -102
- NYR +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTA 2.8 – 2.7 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTA | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +1 | UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +39 Elo | NYR 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 53.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTA | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.730th of 32 |
| 10th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.74th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.117th of 32 |
| 4th of 3253.1% | Shot share | 47.3%26th of 32 |
| 25th of 3289.0% | Save percentage | 91.5%3rd of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 32 |
| 27th of 3210–15 | Road vs home | 5–1331st of 32 |
| 20th of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 15046th of 32 |
| 18th of 321494 | Elo rating | 150314th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTA |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 18–24 | 22–21 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–18 | 5–17 |
| Underdog | 11–6 | 17–4 |
| Overs–unders | 21–21 | 16–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTA 2–1 NYR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.
