New York Rangers at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Mika ZibanejadGoals3
- Alexis LafreniereAssists3
- Mika ZibanejadPoints5
Panthers- Sam ReinhartGoals1
- Brad MarchandAssists1
- Sam ReinhartPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:32Mika Zibanejad Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: none5–1
- P312:25Artemi Panarin Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (15), Mika Zibanejad (20)4–1
- P32:20Sam Reinhart Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (17), Brad Marchand (23)3–1
- P20:58Mika Zibanejad Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (15), Vincent Trocheck (14)3–0
- P116:13Artemi Panarin Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (19), Alexis Lafrenière (14)2–0
- P115:09Mika Zibanejad Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (13), Artemi Panarin (28)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:09Mika Zibanejad Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (13), Artemi Panarin (28)NYR 1 – 0 FLA · NYR 46% → 62% +17NYR 46% → 62%+17 pts
- P116:13Artemi Panarin Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (19), Alexis Lafrenière (14)NYR 2 – 0 FLA · NYR 62% → 77% +15NYR 62% → 77%+15 pts
- P20:58Mika Zibanejad Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (15), Vincent Trocheck (14)NYR 3 – 0 FLA · NYR 79% → 89% +11NYR 79% → 89%+11 pts
- P32:20Sam Reinhart Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (17), Brad Marchand (23)NYR 3 – 1 FLA · FLA 3% → 10% +8FLA 3% → 10%+8 pts
- P312:25Artemi Panarin Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (15), Mika Zibanejad (20)NYR 4 – 1 FLA · NYR 98% → >99% +2NYR 98% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 55%
- ML NYR +114 / FLA -135
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.5 pts
- FLA: Elo 58.6%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- FLA -123
- NYR +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 2.6 – 2.9 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +10 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +60 Elo | FLA 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 53.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.211th of 32 |
| 6th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.218th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.110th of 32 |
| 24th of 3247.7% | Shot share | 52.2%6th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3291.3% | Save percentage | 89.2%22nd of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 9th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 150111th of 32 |
| 18th of 321496 | Elo rating | 15474th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 21–21 | 13–26 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–17 | 7–23 |
| Underdog | 16–4 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 15–27 | 22–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 4–8 FLA in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 12.
- Apr 14NYR 5 @ FLA 3Picked FLA 61%Miss
- Dec 30NYR 3 @ FLA 5Picked FLA 65%Hit
- Oct 24FLA 3 @ NYR 1Picked NYR 58%Miss
- Jun 1NYR 1 @ FLA 2PlayoffsPicked FLA 55%Hit
- May 30FLA 3 @ NYR 2PlayoffsPicked NYR 55%Miss
- May 28NYR 2 @ FLA 3PlayoffsPicked FLA 55%Hit
- May 26NYR 5 @ FLA 4PlayoffsPicked FLA 55%Miss
- May 24FLA 1 @ NYR 2PlayoffsPicked NYR 54%Hit