Columbus Blue Jackets at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets
Avalanche- Brent BurnsGoals2
- Parker KellyAssists2
- Brent BurnsPoints2
Scoring summary
- P38:33Brent Burns Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Zakhar Bardakov (7), Gavin Brindley (6)0–4
- P210:30Ilya Solovyov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Parker Kelly (8), Victor Olofsson (13)0–3
- P117:28Victor Olofsson Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Jack Drury (8), Parker Kelly (7)0–2
- P113:58Brent Burns Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Ross Colton (15), Gavin Brindley (5)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:58Brent Burns Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Ross Colton (15), Gavin Brindley (5)CBJ 0 – 1 COL · COL 69% → 82% +13COL 69% → 82%+13 pts
- P117:28Victor Olofsson Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Jack Drury (8), Parker Kelly (7)CBJ 0 – 2 COL · COL 82% → 91% +9COL 82% → 91%+9 pts
- P210:30Ilya Solovyov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Parker Kelly (8), Victor Olofsson (13)CBJ 0 – 3 COL · COL 92% → 97% +5COL 92% → 97%+5 pts
- P38:33Brent Burns Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Zakhar Bardakov (7), Gavin Brindley (6)CBJ 0 – 4 COL · COL >99% → >99% +0COL >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- COL 71%
- ML CBJ +230 / COL -285
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- COL: Elo 72.5%, market 71.0%
- Fair odds
- COL -244
- CBJ +244 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.6 – 3.9 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1606 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −25 | −20 | CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.63 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · COL: Trent Miner: team allows 0.50 more goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +169 Elo | COL 72.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 67.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 68.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 71.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 4.11st of 32 |
| 28th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.31st of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.3 | Margin | +1.81st of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.3% | Shot share | 56.2%2nd of 32 |
| 13th of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 91.9%1st of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 32 |
| 26th of 329–14 | Road vs home | 18–21st of 32 |
| 7th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 149624th of 32 |
| 24th of 321477 | Elo rating | 16061st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 21–22 | 24–19 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–12 | 23–19 |
| Underdog | 19–10 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 23–20 | 19–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 2–3 COL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.