Colorado Avalanche at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Artturi LehkonenGoals1
- Brock NelsonAssists1
- Artturi LehkonenPoints1
Panthers- Aaron EkbladGoals1
- Aaron EkbladPoints1
Scoring summary
- P218:12Aaron Ekblad Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: none1–2
- P111:51Artturi Lehkonen Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Josh Manson (13), Brock Nelson (15)1–1
- P16:27Sam Bennett Goal (14) Backhand, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:27Sam Bennett Goal (14) Backhand, assists: noneCOL 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 43% → 59% +15FLA 43% → 59%+15 pts
- P111:51Artturi Lehkonen Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Josh Manson (13), Brock Nelson (15)COL 1 – 1 FLA · COL 40% → 56% +16COL 40% → 56%+16 pts
- P218:12Aaron Ekblad Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: noneCOL 1 – 2 FLA · FLA 46% → 69% +23FLA 46% → 69%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- COL 57%
- ML COL -148 / FLA +124
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- COL: Elo 54.7%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- COL -134
- FLA +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.5 – 3.0 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1610 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | COL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +7 | −22 | COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · FLA: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.55 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +33 Elo | COL 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 56.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 324.1 | Goals scored | 3.213th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.3 | Goals allowed | 3.221st of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.8 | Margin | −0.116th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3256.4% | Shot share | 52.6%5th of 32 |
| 1st of 3292.0% | Save percentage | 89.0%24th of 32 |
| 1st of 3210–0 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 32 |
| 1st of 3214–7 | Road vs home | 13–1117th of 32 |
| 31st of 321493 | Opponent Elo | 150213th of 32 |
| 1st of 321610 | Elo rating | 15414th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 23–17 | 13–27 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 22–17 | 7–24 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 18–22 | 23–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 3–2 FLA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.