Colorado Avalanche at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Brock NelsonGoals2
- Nathan MacKinnonAssists3
- Nathan MacKinnonPoints4
Hurricanes- Sebastian AhoGoals1
- Sebastian AhoAssists1
- Sebastian AhoPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:42Nathan MacKinnon Goal (35) , assists: Martin Necas (34), Artturi Lehkonen (19)5–3
- P37:30Brock Nelson Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (39), Cale Makar (35)4–3
- P31:42Jack Drury Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Ross Colton (11)3–3
- P31:09Brock Nelson Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (38), Cale Makar (34)2–3
- P27:50Andrei Svechnikov Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Sebastian Aho (25), K'Andre Miller (14)1–3
- P24:47Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (11), Logan Stankoven (11)1–2
- P21:47Gabriel Landeskog Goal (7) Wrap-around, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (37), Martin Necas (33)1–1
- P118:09Sebastian Aho Goal (17) Backhand, assists: Eric Robinson (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:47Gabriel Landeskog Goal (7) Wrap-around, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (37), Martin Necas (33)COL 1 – 1 CAR · COL 38% → 56% +18COL 38% → 56%+18 pts
- P24:47Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (11), Logan Stankoven (11)COL 1 – 2 CAR · CAR 44% → 63% +19CAR 44% → 63%+19 pts
- P31:09Brock Nelson Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (38), Cale Makar (34)COL 2 – 3 CAR · COL 11% → 29% +18COL 11% → 29%+18 pts
- P31:42Jack Drury Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Ross Colton (11)COL 3 – 3 CAR · COL 29% → 54% +25COL 29% → 54%+25 pts
- P37:30Brock Nelson Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (39), Cale Makar (35)COL 4 – 3 CAR · COL 53% → 81% +28COL 53% → 81%+28 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- COL 57%
- ML COL -148 / CAR +124
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- COL: Elo 58.0%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- COL -134
- CAR +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.5 – 3.0 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1606 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | −12 | COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.31 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +56 Elo | COL 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 53.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 324.1 | Goals scored | 3.45th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.3 | Goals allowed | 3.014th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.8 | Margin | +0.36th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3256.5% | Shot share | 56.8%1st of 32 |
| 1st of 3292.0% | Save percentage | 88.6%27th of 32 |
| 1st of 329–1 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3213–7 | Road vs home | 13–84th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321492 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 32 |
| 1st of 321606 | Elo rating | 15365th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 22–17 | 14–26 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 21–17 | 12–25 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 17–22 | 21–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 2–3 CAR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.