Ottawa Senators at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Brady TkachukGoals1
- Tyler KlevenAssists1
- Brady TkachukPoints1
Avalanche- Josh MansonGoals2
- Nathan MacKinnonAssists3
- Josh MansonPoints4
Scoring summary
- P37:03Brady Tkachuk Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Kleven (6)2–8
- P218:04Brock Nelson Goal (21) Slap Shot, assists: Ilya Solovyov (2), Ross Colton (14)1–8
- P216:48Josh Manson Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Jack Drury (7), Zakhar Bardakov (6)1–7
- P214:23Brock Nelson Goal (20) Slap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (42), Cale Makar (38)1–6
- P212:03Brent Burns Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Manson (15), Ross Colton (13)1–5
- P211:46Martin Necas Goal (20) Slap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (41), Cale Makar (37)1–4
- P25:08Shane Pinto Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (21), Jake Sanderson (24)1–3
- P22:35Cale Makar Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (40), Josh Manson (14)0–3
- P117:14Nathan MacKinnon Goal (36) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (35), Sam Malinski (20)0–2
- P110:11Josh Manson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ross Colton (12), Brock Nelson (16)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:11Josh Manson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ross Colton (12), Brock Nelson (16)OTT 0 – 1 COL · COL 70% → 82% +12COL 70% → 82%+12 pts
- P117:14Nathan MacKinnon Goal (36) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (35), Sam Malinski (20)OTT 0 – 2 COL · COL 82% → 91% +9COL 82% → 91%+9 pts
- P22:35Cale Makar Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (40), Josh Manson (14)OTT 0 – 3 COL · COL 91% → 97% +5COL 91% → 97%+5 pts
- P25:08Shane Pinto Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (21), Jake Sanderson (24)OTT 1 – 3 COL · OTT 3% → 8% +5OTT 3% → 8%+5 pts
- P211:46Martin Necas Goal (20) Slap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (41), Cale Makar (37)OTT 1 – 4 COL · COL 93% → 98% +5COL 93% → 98%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- COL 71%
- ML OTT +235 / COL -290
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- COL: Elo 73.5%, market 71.4%
- Fair odds
- COL -249
- OTT +249 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.6 – 3.9 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1603 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | OTT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +5 | OTT: Leevi Merilainen: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +177 Elo | COL 73.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 72.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 72.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 71.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 4.01st of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.31st of 32 |
| 15th of 320.0 | Margin | +1.71st of 32 |
| 4th of 3252.9% | Shot share | 56.3%2nd of 32 |
| 32nd of 3287.6% | Save percentage | 91.9%1st of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 32 |
| 17th of 3210–11 | Road vs home | 17–21st of 32 |
| 27th of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 149624th of 32 |
| 17th of 321498 | Elo rating | 16031st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–25 | 23–19 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–22 | 22–19 |
| Underdog | 9–3 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 25–17 | 18–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 0–4 COL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.