Colorado Avalanche at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Parker KellyGoals1
- Zakhar BardakovAssists1
- Brock NelsonPoints1
Lightning- Brandon HagelGoals1
- Darren RaddyshAssists2
- Brandon HagelPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:35Anthony Cirelli Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (18), Darren Raddysh (24)2–4
- P38:31Brandon Hagel Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Max Crozier (9), Nikita Kucherov (41)2–3
- P217:22Zemgus Girgensons Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Yanni Gourde (9), Pontus Holmberg (7)2–2
- P29:31Brock Nelson Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (36)2–1
- P23:22Parker Kelly Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Zakhar Bardakov (5), Ilya Solovyov (1)1–1
- P119:48Jake Guentzel Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (40), Darren Raddysh (23)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:48Jake Guentzel Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (40), Darren Raddysh (23)COL 0 – 1 TB · TB 49% → 66% +17TB 49% → 66%+17 pts
- P23:22Parker Kelly Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Zakhar Bardakov (5), Ilya Solovyov (1)COL 1 – 1 TB · COL 33% → 51% +18COL 33% → 51%+18 pts
- P29:31Brock Nelson Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (36)COL 2 – 1 TB · COL 51% → 71% +19COL 51% → 71%+19 pts
- P217:22Zemgus Girgensons Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Yanni Gourde (9), Pontus Holmberg (7)COL 2 – 2 TB · TB 27% → 49% +22TB 27% → 49%+22 pts
- P38:31Brandon Hagel Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Max Crozier (9), Nikita Kucherov (41)COL 2 – 3 TB · TB 49% → 79% +30TB 49% → 79%+30 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- COL 52%
- ML COL -118 / TB -102
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- COL: Elo 50.5%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- COL -107
- TB +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.3 – 3.2 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1607 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +13 | COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.32 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +4 Elo | COL 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 51.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 324.0 | Goals scored | 3.53rd of 32 |
| 1st of 322.3 | Goals allowed | 2.72nd of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.8 | Margin | +0.82nd of 32 |
| 1st of 3256.3% | Shot share | 50.7%12th of 32 |
| 1st of 3292.0% | Save percentage | 90.4%9th of 32 |
| 1st of 329–1 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 3214–8 | Road vs home | 11–915th of 32 |
| 31st of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 32 |
| 1st of 321607 | Elo rating | 15622nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 23–18 | 19–22 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 22–18 | 10–22 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 9–0 |
| Overs–unders | 18–23 | 22–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 2–3 TB in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.