St. Louis Blues at Utah Mammoth, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Oskar SundqvistGoals1
- Nathan WalkerAssists1
- Pavel BuchnevichPoints1
Mammoth- Nick SchmaltzGoals2
- Clayton KellerAssists3
- Nick SchmaltzPoints3
Scoring summary
- P36:57Nick Schmaltz Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (15), Clayton Keller (28)2–4
- P216:27Pavel Buchnevich Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jimmy Snuggerud (8), Robert Thomas (21)2–3
- P211:43Sean Durzi Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (24), Lawson Crouse (11)1–3
- P27:55Oskar Sundqvist Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan Walker (7)1–2
- P27:45Lawson Crouse Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (27), John Marino (17)0–2
- P115:10Nick Schmaltz Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (26), Mikhail Sergachev (25)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:10Nick Schmaltz Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (26), Mikhail Sergachev (25)STL 0 – 1 UTA · UTA 61% → 76% +15UTA 61% → 76%+15 pts
- P27:55Oskar Sundqvist Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan Walker (7)STL 1 – 2 UTA · STL 11% → 23% +12STL 11% → 23%+12 pts
- P211:43Sean Durzi Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (24), Lawson Crouse (11)STL 1 – 3 UTA · UTA 78% → 90% +13UTA 78% → 90%+13 pts
- P216:27Pavel Buchnevich Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jimmy Snuggerud (8), Robert Thomas (21)STL 2 – 3 UTA · STL 8% → 21% +13STL 8% → 21%+13 pts
- P36:57Nick Schmaltz Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (15), Clayton Keller (28)STL 2 – 4 UTA · UTA 83% → 96% +13UTA 83% → 96%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mammoth 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 63%
- ML STL +160 / UTA -192
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- UTA: Elo 59.6%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- UTA -171
- STL +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.4 – 3.1 UTA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | UTA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +7 | STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTA +67 Elo | UTA 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTA 66.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTA 65.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 63.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.5 | Goals scored | 3.021st of 32 |
| 29th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−1.0 | Margin | +0.28th of 32 |
| 29th of 3246.6% | Shot share | 52.8%4th of 32 |
| 28th of 3288.4% | Save percentage | 89.3%22nd of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 29th of 327–13 | Road vs home | 10–815th of 32 |
| 31st of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 149722nd of 32 |
| 26th of 321473 | Elo rating | 150016th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–24 | 19–25 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–18 | 8–19 |
| Underdog | 19–6 | 11–6 |
| Overs–unders | 22–22 | 21–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 3–3 UTA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.
