St. Louis Blues at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Otto StenbergGoals1
- Alexey ToropchenkoAssists1
- Nathan WalkerPoints1
Blackhawks- Louis CrevierGoals1
- Matt GrzelcykAssists2
- Louis CrevierPoints2
Scoring summary
- P313:19Nathan Walker Goal (4) Batted, assists: Alexey Toropchenko (4), Philip Broberg (12)3–7
- P312:56Louis Crevier Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Landon Slaggert (2), Alex Vlasic (8)2–7
- P35:11Andre Burakovsky Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Greene (12), Teuvo Teravainen (12)2–6
- P217:24Jason Dickinson Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Louis Crevier (10)2–5
- P212:27Landon Slaggert Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Colton Dach (5), Connor Murphy (7)2–4
- P28:57Connor Murphy Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: none2–3
- P28:22Otto Stenberg Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: none2–2
- P27:41Oliver Moore Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Grzelcyk (10), Nick Foligno (7)1–2
- P19:26Nick Lardis Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Oliver Moore (9), Matt Grzelcyk (9)1–1
- P10:27Tyler Tucker Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (9)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:26Nick Lardis Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Oliver Moore (9), Matt Grzelcyk (9)STL 1 – 1 CHI · CHI 32% → 48% +15CHI 32% → 48%+15 pts
- P27:41Oliver Moore Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Grzelcyk (10), Nick Foligno (7)STL 1 – 2 CHI · CHI 48% → 67% +19CHI 48% → 67%+19 pts
- P28:22Otto Stenberg Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: noneSTL 2 – 2 CHI · STL 32% → 52% +19STL 32% → 52%+19 pts
- P28:57Connor Murphy Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: noneSTL 2 – 3 CHI · CHI 48% → 68% +20CHI 48% → 68%+20 pts
- P212:27Landon Slaggert Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Colton Dach (5), Connor Murphy (7)STL 2 – 4 CHI · CHI 69% → 85% +16CHI 69% → 85%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blues 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- STL 53%
- ML STL -122 / CHI +102
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- STL: Elo 50.9%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- STL -111
- CHI +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.8 – 2.7 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1428 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +7 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +7 Elo | STL 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 50.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.5 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 32 |
| 29th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.218th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−0.9 | Margin | −0.427th of 32 |
| 29th of 3246.6% | Shot share | 45.8%31st of 32 |
| 27th of 3288.7% | Save percentage | 89.8%14th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 29th of 327–12 | Road vs home | 9–1225th of 32 |
| 26th of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 150115th of 32 |
| 25th of 321479 | Elo rating | 142831st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–23 | 30–12 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–17 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 19–6 | 30–11 |
| Overs–unders | 21–22 | 18–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 7–2 CHI in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.