Calgary Flames at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Connor ZaryGoals1
- Morgan FrostAssists1
- Connor ZaryPoints1
Bruins- Sean KuralyGoals1
- Tanner JeannotAssists2
- Sean KuralyPoints2
Scoring summary
- P218:44Connor Zary Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (12), Kevin Bahl (5)1–4
- P217:59Casey Mittelstadt Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Viktor Arvidsson (12), Pavel Zacha (18)0–4
- P214:02Mason Lohrei Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Kuraly (9), Tanner Jeannot (13)0–3
- P112:06Elias Lindholm Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (30), Marat Khusnutdinov (10)0–2
- P19:48Sean Kuraly Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Tanner Jeannot (12), Charlie McAvoy (22)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:48Sean Kuraly Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Tanner Jeannot (12), Charlie McAvoy (22)CGY 0 – 1 BOS · BOS 54% → 69% +15BOS 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P112:06Elias Lindholm Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (30), Marat Khusnutdinov (10)CGY 0 – 2 BOS · BOS 69% → 82% +13BOS 69% → 82%+13 pts
- P214:02Mason Lohrei Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Kuraly (9), Tanner Jeannot (13)CGY 0 – 3 BOS · BOS 88% → 96% +8BOS 88% → 96%+8 pts
- P217:59Casey Mittelstadt Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Viktor Arvidsson (12), Pavel Zacha (18)CGY 0 – 4 BOS · BOS 97% → >99% +2BOS 97% → >99%+2 pts
- P218:44Connor Zary Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (12), Kevin Bahl (5)CGY 1 – 4 BOS · CGY <1% → 3% +2CGY <1% → 3%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bruins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 54%
- ML CGY +110 / BOS -130
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.8 pts
- BOS: Elo 58.1%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -119
- CGY +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 3.1 – 3.4 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CGY on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −9 | CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · BOS: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.22 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +57 Elo | BOS 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 57.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.212th of 32 |
| 12th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.325th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.122nd of 32 |
| 16th of 3250.5% | Shot share | 47.5%26th of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 89.5%17th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 32 |
| 32nd of 326–16 | Road vs home | 12–99th of 32 |
| 26th of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 150310th of 32 |
| 26th of 321477 | Elo rating | 147924th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 25–18 | 27–16 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 6–6 | 2–7 |
| Underdog | 19–12 | 25–9 |
| Overs–unders | 26–17 | 24–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 3–2 BOS in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.