Boston Bruins at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- David PastrnakGoals2
- Fraser MintenAssists2
- David PastrnakPoints3
Oilers- Zach HymanGoals1
- Darnell NurseAssists1
- Zach HymanPoints1
Scoring summary
- P314:34David Pastrnak Goal (17) Slap Shot, assists: Fraser Minten (9), Marat Khusnutdinov (8)6–2
- P37:22Jack Roslovic Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Darnell Nurse (9), Connor Ingram (1)5–2
- P34:20Elias Lindholm Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Geekie (16), Alex Steeves (3)5–1
- P218:19Jonathan Aspirot Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (27)4–1
- P27:05Hampus Lindholm Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Fraser Minten (8), Viktor Arvidsson (10)3–1
- P119:19Zach Hyman Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (46), Leon Draisaitl (37)2–1
- P118:13Casey Mittelstadt Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Viktor Arvidsson (9), Hampus Lindholm (10)2–0
- P17:28David Pastrnak Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Lindholm (19), Charlie McAvoy (19)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:28David Pastrnak Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Lindholm (19), Charlie McAvoy (19)BOS 1 – 0 EDM · BOS 39% → 54% +15BOS 39% → 54%+15 pts
- P118:13Casey Mittelstadt Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Viktor Arvidsson (9), Hampus Lindholm (10)BOS 2 – 0 EDM · BOS 57% → 73% +16BOS 57% → 73%+16 pts
- P119:19Zach Hyman Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (46), Leon Draisaitl (37)BOS 2 – 1 EDM · EDM 26% → 43% +16EDM 26% → 43%+16 pts
- P27:05Hampus Lindholm Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Fraser Minten (8), Viktor Arvidsson (10)BOS 3 – 1 EDM · BOS 60% → 77% +17BOS 60% → 77%+17 pts
- P218:19Jonathan Aspirot Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (27)BOS 4 – 1 EDM · BOS 85% → 95% +10BOS 85% → 95%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 62%
- ML BOS +154 / EDM -185
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- EDM: Elo 64.6%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- EDM -165
- BOS +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.9 – 3.6 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −1 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · EDM: Connor Ingram: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +104 Elo | EDM 64.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 64.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 64.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.44th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.323rd of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.110th of 32 |
| 25th of 3247.5% | Shot share | 51.0%11th of 32 |
| 19th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 88.7%27th of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 25th of 328–11 | Road vs home | 10–65th of 32 |
| 7th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 32 |
| 24th of 321475 | Elo rating | 15474th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 26–14 | 17–23 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | 12–20 |
| Underdog | 24–9 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 22–18 | 22–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 1–4 EDM in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.