Boston Bruins at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- David PastrnakGoals2
- Viktor ArvidssonAssists1
- David PastrnakPoints2
Kraken- Kaapo KakkoGoals2
- Frederick GaudreauAssists2
- Kaapo KakkoPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:48Kaapo Kakko Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–7
- P317:38Viktor Arvidsson Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (8), Alex Steeves (5)4–6
- P314:50Mason Lohrei Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (17), Viktor Arvidsson (11)3–6
- P314:20Berkly Catton Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Freddy Gaudreau (7), Kaapo Kakko (10)2–6
- P310:21Kaapo Kakko Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Freddy Gaudreau (6), Chandler Stephenson (16)2–5
- P219:59Jared McCann Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (17), Matty Beniers (19)2–4
- P218:23Ben Meyers Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Tye Kartye (5)2–3
- P26:28David Pastrnak Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (21), Elias Lindholm (20)2–2
- P22:48Berkly Catton Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Jared McCann (6), Ryker Evans (7)1–2
- P112:47David Pastrnak Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Zadorov (13), Marat Khusnutdinov (9)1–1
- P18:50Jordan Eberle Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (18), Vince Dunn (16)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:47David Pastrnak Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Zadorov (13), Marat Khusnutdinov (9)BOS 1 – 1 SEA · BOS 36% → 52% +16BOS 36% → 52%+16 pts
- P22:48Berkly Catton Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Jared McCann (6), Ryker Evans (7)BOS 1 – 2 SEA · SEA 48% → 66% +18SEA 48% → 66%+18 pts
- P26:28David Pastrnak Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (21), Elias Lindholm (20)BOS 2 – 2 SEA · BOS 33% → 52% +19BOS 33% → 52%+19 pts
- P218:23Ben Meyers Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Tye Kartye (5)BOS 2 – 3 SEA · SEA 49% → 72% +23SEA 49% → 72%+23 pts
- P219:59Jared McCann Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (17), Matty Beniers (19)BOS 2 – 4 SEA · SEA 73% → 89% +17SEA 73% → 89%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bruins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 52%
- ML BOS -120 / SEA +100
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- BOS: Elo 49.7%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -109
- SEA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.8 – 2.7 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | SEA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +6 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +2 Elo | SEA 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 53.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.728th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.910th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.222nd of 32 |
| 27th of 3247.2% | Shot share | 47.0%28th of 32 |
| 15th of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 91.2%4th of 32 |
| 29th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 32 |
| 18th of 3210–11 | Road vs home | 9–1122nd of 32 |
| 9th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 149232nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 321484 | Elo rating | 147827th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 27–15 | 27–13 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 2–6 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 25–9 | 24–10 |
| Overs–unders | 23–19 | 16–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 1–3 SEA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.