Boston Bruins at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Fraser MintenGoals2
- David PastrnakAssists2
- Fraser MintenPoints2
Canucks- Filip HronekGoals1
- Filip HronekAssists1
- Filip HronekPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT4:41Fraser Minten Goal (8) Backhand, assists: David Pastrnak (29), Mason Lohrei (14)3–2
- P218:44Filip Hronek Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Zeev Buium (14), Evander Kane (14)2–2
- P27:25Elias Lindholm Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: David Pastrnak (28), Charlie McAvoy (20)2–1
- P20:48Elias Pettersson Goal (10) Deflected, assists: Filip Hronek (22), Linus Karlsson (8)1–1
- P116:24Fraser Minten Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Steeves (4), Hampus Lindholm (11)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:24Fraser Minten Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Steeves (4), Hampus Lindholm (11)BOS 1 – 0 VAN · BOS 55% → 71% +16BOS 55% → 71%+16 pts
- P20:48Elias Pettersson Goal (10) Deflected, assists: Filip Hronek (22), Linus Karlsson (8)BOS 1 – 1 VAN · VAN 28% → 45% +17VAN 28% → 45%+17 pts
- P27:25Elias Lindholm Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: David Pastrnak (28), Charlie McAvoy (20)BOS 2 – 1 VAN · BOS 55% → 73% +18BOS 55% → 73%+18 pts
- P218:44Filip Hronek Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Zeev Buium (14), Evander Kane (14)BOS 2 – 2 VAN · VAN 24% → 46% +22VAN 24% → 46%+22 pts
- OT4:41Fraser Minten Goal (8) Backhand, assists: David Pastrnak (29), Mason Lohrei (14)BOS 3 – 2 VAN · BOS 50% → >99% +50BOS 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bruins 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 56%
- ML BOS -142 / VAN +120
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- BOS: Elo 53.8%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -129
- VAN +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.4 – 3.1 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1464 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | VAN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −10 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.26 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +26 Elo | BOS 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 54.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.923rd of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.530th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.631st of 32 |
| 25th of 3247.4% | Shot share | 47.1%28th of 32 |
| 16th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 89.3%20th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 21st of 329–11 | Road vs home | 4–1432nd of 32 |
| 6th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 32 |
| 24th of 321482 | Elo rating | 146429th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 27–14 | 20–20 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | 1–9 |
| Underdog | 25–9 | 19–11 |
| Overs–unders | 23–18 | 24–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 2–3 VAN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.