Calgary Flames at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Matt CoronatoGoals1
- Mikael BacklundAssists1
- Connor ZaryPoints1
Penguins- Egor ChinakhovGoals1
- Evgeni MalkinAssists1
- Egor ChinakhovPoints1
Scoring summary
- P30:42Matt Coronato Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Andersson (19), Mikael Backlund (17)2–1
- P29:17Egor Chinakhov Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (22), Ben Kindel (11)1–1
- P12:33Connor Zary Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:33Connor Zary Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCGY 1 – 0 PIT · CGY 43% → 58% +15CGY 43% → 58%+15 pts
- P29:17Egor Chinakhov Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (22), Ben Kindel (11)CGY 1 – 1 PIT · PIT 35% → 55% +20PIT 35% → 55%+20 pts
- P30:42Matt Coronato Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Andersson (19), Mikael Backlund (17)CGY 2 – 1 PIT · CGY 46% → 71% +25CGY 46% → 71%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Penguins 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 57%
- ML CGY +124 / PIT -148
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- PIT: Elo 57.8%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- PIT -134
- CGY +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 3.0 – 3.5 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −11 | −6 | CGY: Devin Cooley: team allows 0.28 more goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) · PIT: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +55 Elo | PIT 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 54.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.310th of 32 |
| 13th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.5 | Margin | +0.210th of 32 |
| 16th of 3250.5% | Shot share | 51.0%10th of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 89.5%18th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 32 |
| 32nd of 326–17 | Road vs home | 9–1124th of 32 |
| 24th of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 149529th of 32 |
| 26th of 321473 | Elo rating | 148821st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 25–19 | 26–16 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–6 | 5–10 |
| Underdog | 19–13 | 21–6 |
| Overs–unders | 26–18 | 22–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 2–2 PIT in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.