New Jersey Devils at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Luke HughesGoals1
- Dougie HamiltonAssists1
- Luke HughesPoints1
Penguins- Connor DewarGoals1
- Rickard RakellAssists2
- Erik KarlssonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P313:26Blake Lizotte Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Noel Acciari (6), Connor Dewar (8)1–4
- P32:55Luke Hughes Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Dougie Hamilton (5), Jack Hughes (14)1–3
- P219:07Evgeni Malkin Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (25), Erik Karlsson (29)0–3
- P25:23Connor Dewar Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Rickard Rakell (11), Kris Letang (19)0–2
- P16:39Erik Karlsson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Rickard Rakell (10), Sidney Crosby (24)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:39Erik Karlsson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Rickard Rakell (10), Sidney Crosby (24)NJ 0 – 1 PIT · PIT 49% → 64% +15PIT 49% → 64%+15 pts
- P25:23Connor Dewar Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Rickard Rakell (11), Kris Letang (19)NJ 0 – 2 PIT · PIT 68% → 83% +15PIT 68% → 83%+15 pts
- P219:07Evgeni Malkin Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (25), Erik Karlsson (29)NJ 0 – 3 PIT · PIT 89% → 97% +8PIT 89% → 97%+8 pts
- P32:55Luke Hughes Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Dougie Hamilton (5), Jack Hughes (14)NJ 1 – 3 PIT · NJ 2% → 9% +7NJ 2% → 9%+7 pts
- P313:26Blake Lizotte Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Noel Acciari (6), Connor Dewar (8)NJ 1 – 4 PIT · PIT 99% → >99% +1PIT 99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 51%
- ML NJ -115 / PIT -105
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.2 pts
- NJ: Elo 43.9%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- NJ -104
- PIT +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.3 – 3.2 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +5 | NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · PIT: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +43 Elo | PIT 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 52.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.39th of 32 |
| 14th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.220th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−0.4 | Margin | +0.110th of 32 |
| 11th of 3251.0% | Shot share | 51.1%10th of 32 |
| 15th of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 89.3%19th of 32 |
| 22nd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 13th of 3211–11 | Road vs home | 8–1126th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321506 | Opponent Elo | 149627th of 32 |
| 25th of 321478 | Elo rating | 148421st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 16–27 | 25–16 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–21 | 4–10 |
| Underdog | 11–6 | 21–6 |
| Overs–unders | 18–25 | 22–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 5–3 PIT in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.