Carolina Hurricanes at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Taylor HallGoals1
- Taylor HallAssists1
- Taylor HallPoints2
Devils- Dawson MercerGoals1
- Jonas SiegenthalerAssists1
- Dawson MercerPoints1
Scoring summary
- P312:16Logan Stankoven Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (12)3–1
- P27:47Taylor Hall Goal (8) Poke, assists: none2–1
- P17:34Dawson Mercer Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Arseny Gritsyuk (10), Jonas Siegenthaler (4)1–1
- P10:51Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (11) , assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:51Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (11) , assists: noneCAR 1 – 0 NJ · CAR 53% → 67% +14CAR 53% → 67%+14 pts
- P17:34Dawson Mercer Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Arseny Gritsyuk (10), Jonas Siegenthaler (4)CAR 1 – 1 NJ · NJ 32% → 47% +15NJ 32% → 47%+15 pts
- P27:47Taylor Hall Goal (8) Poke, assists: noneCAR 2 – 1 NJ · CAR 52% → 71% +19CAR 52% → 71%+19 pts
- P312:16Logan Stankoven Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (12)CAR 3 – 1 NJ · CAR 85% → 98% +13CAR 85% → 98%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 53%
- ML CAR -125 / NJ +105
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- CAR: Elo 50.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CAR -114
- NJ +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.3 – 3.2 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | NJ and CAR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +3 | CAR: Brandon Bussi: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) · NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +6 Elo | CAR 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 50.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.827th of 32 |
| 14th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −0.223rd of 32 |
| 1st of 3256.5% | Shot share | 50.7%14th of 32 |
| 27th of 3288.6% | Save percentage | 90.2%12th of 32 |
| 23rd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 6th of 3211–8 | Road vs home | 11–914th of 32 |
| 8th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 15055th of 32 |
| 6th of 321533 | Elo rating | 148819th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 14–27 | 16–25 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–25 | 5–20 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 11–5 |
| Overs–unders | 22–19 | 17–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 10–3 NJ in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 13.
- Oct 9NJ 3 @ CAR 6Picked CAR 61%Hit
- Apr 29NJ 4 @ CAR 5PlayoffsPicked CAR 71%Hit
- Apr 27CAR 5 @ NJ 2PlayoffsPicked CAR 63%Hit
- Apr 25CAR 2 @ NJ 3PlayoffsPicked CAR 60%Miss
- Apr 22NJ 1 @ CAR 3PlayoffsPicked CAR 71%Hit
- Apr 20NJ 1 @ CAR 4PlayoffsPicked CAR 67%Hit
- Dec 28NJ 2 @ CAR 5Picked CAR 55%Hit
- Dec 27CAR 2 @ NJ 4Picked NJ 55%Hit