Vancouver Canucks at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Brock BoeserGoals1
- Elias PetterssonAssists1
- Brock BoeserPoints1
Blue Jackets- Kirill MarchenkoGoals1
- Kirill MarchenkoAssists1
- Kirill MarchenkoPoints2
Scoring summary
- P310:13Kent Johnson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Boone Jenner (16), Damon Severson (15)1–4
- P214:09Brock Boeser Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (16), Zeev Buium (15)1–3
- P210:14Zach Werenski Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Kent Johnson (9)0–3
- P25:49Kirill Marchenko Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–2
- P117:25Charlie Coyle Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Kirill Marchenko (23), Adam Fantilli (18)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:25Charlie Coyle Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Kirill Marchenko (23), Adam Fantilli (18)VAN 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 58% → 74% +16CBJ 58% → 74%+16 pts
- P25:49Kirill Marchenko Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: noneVAN 0 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 75% → 88% +13CBJ 75% → 88%+13 pts
- P210:14Zach Werenski Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Kent Johnson (9)VAN 0 – 3 CBJ · CBJ 89% → 96% +7CBJ 89% → 96%+7 pts
- P214:09Brock Boeser Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (16), Zeev Buium (15)VAN 1 – 3 CBJ · VAN 3% → 10% +7VAN 3% → 10%+7 pts
- P310:13Kent Johnson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Boone Jenner (16), Damon Severson (15)VAN 1 – 4 CBJ · CBJ 97% → >99% +3CBJ 97% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jackets 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CBJ 60%
- ML VAN +140 / CBJ -166
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- CBJ: Elo 57.9%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -150
- VAN +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 3.0 – 3.5 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1446 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −9 | −24 | VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.59 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +55 Elo | CBJ 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 58.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CBJ 60.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.020th of 32 |
| 31st of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.428th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−0.9 | Margin | −0.323rd of 32 |
| 26th of 3247.4% | Shot share | 49.7%17th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3288.9% | Save percentage | 89.7%17th of 32 |
| 31st of 321–9 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3212–15 | Road vs home | 10–1124th of 32 |
| 18th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 15064th of 32 |
| 30th of 321446 | Elo rating | 148120th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 22–24 | 23–23 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–9 | 3–12 |
| Underdog | 21–15 | 20–11 |
| Overs–unders | 26–20 | 24–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 3–2 CBJ in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.