Vancouver Canucks at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Liam OhgrenGoals1
- Brock BoeserAssists2
- Brock BoeserPoints2
Sabres- Alex TuchGoals1
- Bowen ByramAssists2
- Alex TuchPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:36Josh Doan Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–5
- P315:55Liam Ohgren Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Pettersson (8), Linus Karlsson (9)3–4
- P315:16Elias Pettersson Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (11), Filip Hronek (23)2–4
- P310:17Jake DeBrusk Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Kiefer Sherwood (5), Brock Boeser (10)1–4
- P36:13Zach Metsa Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Beck Malenstyn (4), Jordan Greenway (4)0–4
- P29:37Alex Tuch Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Bowen Byram (13), Josh Norris (9)0–3
- P111:24Ryan McLeod Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (21), Mattias Samuelsson (14)0–2
- P12:01Tage Thompson Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Bowen Byram (12), Owen Power (10)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:01Tage Thompson Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Bowen Byram (12), Owen Power (10)VAN 0 – 1 BUF · BUF 60% → 74% +13BUF 60% → 74%+13 pts
- P111:24Ryan McLeod Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (21), Mattias Samuelsson (14)VAN 0 – 2 BUF · BUF 74% → 85% +11BUF 74% → 85%+11 pts
- P29:37Alex Tuch Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Bowen Byram (13), Josh Norris (9)VAN 0 – 3 BUF · BUF 89% → 96% +7BUF 89% → 96%+7 pts
- P315:55Liam Ohgren Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Pettersson (8), Linus Karlsson (9)VAN 3 – 4 BUF · VAN <1% → 7% +7VAN <1% → 7%+7 pts
- P318:36Josh Doan Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: noneVAN 3 – 5 BUF · BUF >99% → >99% +1BUF >99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 60%
- ML VAN +142 / BUF -170
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- BUF: Elo 59.9%, market 60.4%
- Fair odds
- BUF -152
- VAN +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 3.0 – 3.5 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1461 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | 0 | VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +70 Elo | BUF 59.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 62.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 62.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 60.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.115th of 32 |
| 30th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.115th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−0.6 | Margin | 0.015th of 32 |
| 25th of 3247.4% | Shot share | 49.5%19th of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 90.3%11th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 8th of 3212–10 | Road vs home | 12–72nd of 32 |
| 19th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 15048th of 32 |
| 29th of 321461 | Elo rating | 149916th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 21–20 | 20–20 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–9 | 7–10 |
| Underdog | 20–11 | 13–10 |
| Overs–unders | 24–17 | 18–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 3–2 BUF in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.